Japan Economics Focus What does a weak yen mean for Japan? The yen may have bottomed out against the dollar, but it is likely to remain weak for some time. That should boost Japan’s economy as higher revenues from exports and from overseas subsidiaries... 2nd August 2022 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea: inflation peaks, tightening cycle nearing end Consumer price inflation in Korea increased to a new 24-year high last month, but we think it has now peaked. With headwinds to the economy mounting, we believe that the central bank’s tightening... 2nd August 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Weak industrial activity taking pressure off supply July’s fall in the global manufacturing PMI supported other evidence that the industrial sector is in or close to recession and the forward-looking indicators point to further weakness to come. At... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing entering choppy waters The drop in the S&P Global EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that a fading re-opening boost in China and weak global demand have caused industry to slow. And in parts of Eastern Europe, the... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Long Run Update Composition of spending will change as populations age The composition of spending changes as consumers age, with a greater proportion allocated to healthcare, food and drink, and less to education, transport and recreation. The experience of countries... 1st August 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) Although the ISM manufacturing index fell again in July, to 52.8 from 53.0, the rate of decline does at least appear to be slowing and, for now, it remains consistent with GDP growth of roughly 1.5%... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The decline in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI in July points to a large hit to activity from weaker global demand as well as severe power cuts at home. It will probably take some time before... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s GDP ticked up last quarter as the easing of virus restrictions boosted consumption. But the recovery was muted, held back by a drop in exports. We think growth will remain weak given... 1st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy at the top of the pack The rapid headline 11.8% y/y GDP growth recorded in Saudi Arabia in Q2 masked underlying weakness in non-oil sectors of the economy. Even so, Saudi Arabia is a relative bright spot in the global... 1st August 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI Manufacturing PMIs for July fell back amid further signs that global demand is weakening. With global growth set to slow further and domestic interest rates set to continue rising, the region’s... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI was remarkably strong in July, with domestic demand supporting activity despite a negative global backdrop. The rebound will give the RBI more confidence to hike by 50bps... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Jul.) The surveys suggest that China’s economic recovery slowed in July as the one-off boost from reopening faded. It is consistent with our view that activity will remain below trend in the coming quarters... 1st August 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Business surveys point to slower GDP growth The slump in the CFIB Business Barometer in July – to a post-pandemic low – shows that the jump in borrowing costs is hitting more than just the housing market. With the survey still pointing to... 29th July 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed hikes as GDP sinks The second-quarter decline in GDP was not quite as bad as it looked, and with the Fed sounding increasingly comfortable with continuing to raise interest rates through a period of weak economic growth... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia cuts gas supplies, signs of slowdown mount The news that Russia's Gazprom has cut gas exports to Europe further this week has increased the likelihood of recessions in many countries at a time that economic activity more broadly is already... 29th July 2022 · 8 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Jun.) Favourable base effects kept y/y growth in India’s core infrastructure industries elevated in June. But once those base effects are removed, it’s clear that the industrial sector is entering a weaker... 29th July 2022 · 2 mins read
