US Economics Weekly Different party, same infrastructure week debacle The weakness of third-quarter GDP growth illustrates that, while demand remains strong, the economy has hit a wall of supply constraints. Ongoing product and labour shortages mean that growth will... 29th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Recent shifts in EM trade balances likely to reverse The big increases in EM commodity producers’ trade balances this year are likely to go into reverse if, as we expect, the prices of energy and metals fall back. At the same time, the manufacturing... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) GDP growth was weaker than expected in August and the preliminary estimate implies the economy stagnated last month. With third-quarter growth seemingly much weaker than the Bank’s latest forecasts... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The Budget, the cycle and the size of the state Now that the dust has settled, two key points on the Autumn Budget stand out to us. The first relates to the size of the state. The Chancellor claimed to be on a “moral mission” to limit the size of... 29th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Investors unconvinced by ECB’s dovish message The ECB’s “soul searching” over inflation has made investors less, not more, convinced that the Bank will buck the hawkish trend elsewhere and keep policy rates on hold. We think investors have got... 29th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s spat, Poland-EU dispute and the zloty A diplomatic spat between Turkey and its Western allies this week was quickly resolved, but it highlighted how vulnerable the lira is to geopolitical developments. And comments from Turkey’s central... 29th October 2021 · 9 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Sep.) Output from India’s core infrastructure industries dropped in September, providing further signs that the industrial recovery is faltering on the back of supply constraints. 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly ANC election struggles, Eskom woes, Nigerian subsidies Local elections that take place in South Africa on Monday are unlikely to have a direct impact on macroeconomic policymaking, but a poor showing for the ruling ANC could intensify pressure on the... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Supply problems remain; Norges Bank to press on Sweden’s Q3 GDP data, published this week, were not as strong as they first appeared, and we expect supply problems to continue to weigh on activity there. The latest data for Switzerland suggest that... 29th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3 Prov.) The surprise 0.2% q/q contraction in Mexico’s economy in Q3 was largely driven by lockdown-related disruption to the services sector, which should unwind in Q4 as restrictions have been eased. Even so... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3) The solid increase in euro-zone GDP in the third quarter means that the recovery phase is now almost complete in most of the euro-zone. Growth will be much slower in Q4 because the boost from... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi’s strength carries echoes of 2015 The renminbi has risen 10% in trade-weighted terms since the middle of last year, reaching its strongest level in over five years this week. The last time we witnessed such rapid gains, they... 29th October 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (Sep.) The tepid rise in consumer credit lends support to our view that economic growth slowed to little more than a crawl in September. Against the backdrop of rising COVID-19 cases and higher inflation, we... 29th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Surging inflation puts pressure on monetary policy Trimmed mean inflation rose to 2.1% in Australia in Q3, the first time it has entered the RBA’s 2-3% target band since 2015. Even more strikingly, trimmed mean inflation in New Zealand rose to 4.4%... 29th October 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q3, provisional) Taiwan’s economy rebounded last quarter but by much less than expected due to a further fall in consumption. But with virus cases now very low and the vaccine rollout gathering momentum, we expect GDP... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Czech GDP (Q3) The rise in Poland’s headline inflation rate to 6.8% y/y in October opens the door for the central bank to deliver a 25bp at next week’s MPC meeting. Elsewhere, Czechia’s economy performed a little... 29th October 2021 · 3 mins read
