Europe Economics Update Effect of shortages on activity and inflation will persist There is growing evidence that global goods shortages are weighing on euro-zone activity. We expect this to contribute to a marked slowdown in growth in Q4, and the outlook for early 2022 is no better... 5th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the latest virus developments in EMs The COVID-19 situation in many EMs has improved markedly over the past month or so as new infections have fallen sharply and vaccine rollouts have gathered pace. That said, the recent surge in virus... 5th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile feeling the heat, Brazil bending the (fiscal) rules Strong September activity data out of Chile this week adds to signs that that the economy is starting to overheat, which will put even more pressure on the central bank to take some steam out of the... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Supply a problem for manufacturers not homeowners The survey-based evidence of elevated orders backlogs and the news that both imports and exports slumped in September illustrate the impact that global supply shortages are having on industry. But... 5th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly The end of king coal, Korea inflation worries If the ambitious targets laid down by the 2015 Paris Agreement are to be met, then global coal consumption will need to fall sharply and eventually be eliminated. This poses a huge challenge for many... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Israel passed a budget, hawks in flight, Turkey déjà vu The Israeli budgets for 2021 and 2022 passed this week – the first approved budgets in three years – don’t make a big difference to the direction of fiscal policy, but contain key reforms that may... 5th November 2021 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Mixed messages, but BoE clear rates won’t rise far next year It is fair to say that the Bank of England’s communications on the timing of the first interest rate hike have been muddled. But the Bank has been much clearer in its warning to the financial markets... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Déjà vu at the SNB; labour shortages reach Greenland The renewed rise in the Swiss franc has lifted it back to territory that will ring alarm bells at the SNB, and the usual release of sight deposit data on Monday morning will indicate whether the Bank... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Sep.) Retail sales have levelled off since June as consumer spending on other services has increased. The latest survey evidence suggests that low inventory levels might also be limiting sales and are set... 5th November 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Outbreak threatens growth, food panic overdone Our downbeat growth forecasts are largely based on expectations for a deepening downturn in construction and industry. But a worsening COVID-19 outbreak means the biggest near-term threat could be a... 5th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Long road ahead for CEE auto producers Auto producers in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have experienced intermittent factory closures in the second half of this year and things may get worse before they get better. Motor vehicles... 5th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (September) The 1.1% m/m fall in industrial production in September was worse than the consensus and our own expectation. Business surveys suggest that shortages of components, particularly in the auto sector... 5th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Indonesia GDP (Q3) Indonesia’s economy only shrank slightly last quarter as exports offset much of the hit from a huge outbreak of COVID-19, and with restrictions being relaxed and virus cases now very low, we expect... 5th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Does Brazil’s inverted yield curve point to a recession? Brazil’s inverted yield curve has raised concerns that the economy may be on the brink of a recession, but it doesn’t have a particularly good track record as a leading indicator for economic... 4th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Sep) The sharp widening in the trade deficit to $80.9bn in September, from $72.8bn, should soon start to reverse as oil exports recover from the disruption caused by Hurricane Ida. But ongoing global... 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Sep.) The trade surplus widened to $1.9bn in September, from $1.5bn, which is better than we were expecting in light of the flash estimates suggesting that manufacturing sales declined last month and that... 4th November 2021 · 2 mins read
