Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) January Manufacturing PMIs suggest that regional industry remains in rude health after a very strong end to last year. While there are signs that producers are having some success in tackling large... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: few signs of green shoots After slipping into a technical recession at the back end of 2021, the latest surveys suggest that Mexico’s economy remains in a weak spot at the start of 2022 owing to Omicron-related disruption. 2nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Dec.) A chunky rise in Brazil’s motor vehicle production supported a much stronger-than-expected 2.9% m/m increase in industrial production in December and means that the economy may have just exited from... 2nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
India Economics Update The UP election and what it means for reforms The upcoming election in Uttar Pradesh (UP) – India’s most populous state and one of its most politically important – is already having an impact on economic policy as contentious reforms have been... 2nd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What does oil at $90pb mean for the Gulf? With oil prices at current levels, nearly all of the Gulf economies are running twin budget and current account surpluses. We think that governments are more likely to save rather than spend this... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Most EM manufacturers take Omicron in their stride January’s PMIs suggest that, while industry in China, Brazil and Mexico is struggling, manufacturers elsewhere in the emerging world have started 2022 on a solid footing, despite the surge in virus... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs: Only a small Omicron hit to industry so far While there is still time for Omicron waves to hit global supply chains, the manufacturing PMIs suggest that there has been limited disruption for now, especially outside China and the US. That said... 1st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Outlook Prices to remain volatile for now, before falling back Energy prices will remain volatile for the next few months, but should fall back later this year as demand drops back and supply picks up. That said, the shortfall of supply over the last year or so... 1st February 2022 · 20 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The small fall in the ISM manufacturing index to 57.6 in January, from 58.8, suggests the Omicron virus wave hasn’t had nearly as big an impact on the factory sector as implied by some of the early... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update The US and euro-zone: different crises, different outlooks The Q4 GDP data released over the past week underline the fact that the two largest developed markets – the US and euro-zone – have so far experienced very different crises and recoveries. These... 1st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) The stronger-than-expected rise in November means that GDP climbed back above its pre-pandemic level, but activity appears to have stagnated in December and November’s gain was likely reversed in... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jan.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded last month from the slump in activity on the back of the Omicron wave, but headwinds facing the sector and the wider economy will keep the recovery subdued. 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Czech GDP (Q4 2021) & Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The strong 0.9% q/q expansion of Czech GDP in Q4 is consistent with data showing a recovery in industry and we think this is likely to continue this year. Meanwhile, more timely manufacturing PMIs for... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jan.) The continued resilience of the manufacturing PMIs in Switzerland and Sweden in January indicates that industry will have supported activity through a restrictions-driven soft patch for services in... 1st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Omicron waves in the rear view mirror Waves of the Omicron variant that spread across the region in December have subsided sharply in recent weeks. And timely survey and mobility data point to a smaller hit from these latest waves... 31st January 2022 · 10 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q4 Prov.) The 0.1% q/q fall in Mexico’s GDP in Q4 confirmed that the economy slipped into a recession over the second half of 2021, and we think growth this year will be weaker than most expect. Despite the... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
