UK Markets Chart Pack Equities adjusting to the end of ultra-low real yields It is possible that equity prices will continue to struggle in the near term if central banks send more signals that they are willing to raise interest rates further in order to control inflation. But... 31st January 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2021) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q4 came as no surprise given the country-level data published last week and shows that the euro-zone economy was struggling at the end of last year. But... 31st January 2022 · 2 mins read
China Chart Pack A less subdued Lunar New Year Millions of people traditionally travel across China to spend this evening, the eve of Lunar New Year, with their families. The tradition has been severely disrupted by the pandemic. Last year, amid a... 31st January 2022 · 12 mins read
Commodities Update Weaker China sets stage for fall in commodity prices The latest PMI data out of China suggest that demand for commodities softened again in January. And with Chinese demand unlikely to bounce back meaningfully this year, we continue to expect sharp... 31st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland GDP (2021) The larger-than-expected 5.7% increase in Polish GDP over 2021 as a whole is consistent with another large expansion in Q4 and meant that the economy recovered faster than most other European... 31st January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Jan.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of economic growth slowed in January due to a combination of weaker foreign demand, cooling property activity and efforts to contain recent outbreaks. We think... 31st January 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Dec. 2021) The small fall in both retail sales and industrial production in December suggests that the post-Delta rebound was losing steam before local Omicron cases started to surge. And while output is still... 31st January 2022 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria sticking with subsidies, dovish rate decisions The announcement by the Nigerian authorities to maintain fuel subsidies – rather than end the scheme as planned – reduces inflation risks, but the budget deficit is set to come in wider than... 28th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Unpacking Argentina’s IMF agreement The Argentine government’s agreement with the IMF for a new $44.5bn deal is a positive step to improve macroeconomic stability. But, at first glance, the deal seems to be based on rosy economic... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Global monetary tightening a challenge for MENA Central banks in the Gulf will have to raise interest rates in line with the Fed (which we expect to hike four times both this year and next) by virtue of their dollar pegs, adding to headwinds facing... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank signals eagerness to begin QT Although the Bank of Canada kept policy unchanged this week, its signal that it intends to start quantitative tightening soon was more hawkish than most were expecting. 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s drive for “lira-isation”, Russia’s market sell-off The upwards revision to the Turkish central bank's 2022 inflation forecast this week was just a matter of catching up with reality and the more interesting detail was the central bank’s emphasis on... 28th January 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Weekly More space to scrap NIC hike than most think With the beleaguered Prime Minister looking to win back support from his Tory MPs, one option reportedly being considered is postponing or scrapping the planned national insurance tax hike. On our... 28th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina agrees to new IMF deal The announcement by Argentine President Fernández that the government has reached a new agreement with the IMF, the 22nd in their history, will give some relief to international bondholders in the... 28th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Ageing a bigger threat than pandemic to public debt We expect governments in advanced economies to take action to prevent public sector debt ratios from spiralling out of control as their populations age. However, this is uncertain, and the risk is... 28th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong labour market not yet feeding through to wages Surveys published this week suggested that the euro-zone economy has had a weak start to 2022 amid surging cases, but this is likely to be short-lived. Meanwhile, although the labour market appears to... 28th January 2022 · 10 mins read
