Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Feb.) Activity data for February show that Poland’s economy continued to expand strongly at the start of this year but the war in Ukraine is likely to drag on the recovery through a hit to exports, supply... 21st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tightening would require wage growth of at least 2% Governor Kuroda admitted last week that inflation could hit the Bank of Japan’s 2% target in April but stressed that “that in no way signifies there will be a revision of our current monetary policy”... 21st March 2022 · 10 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Fed tightening and the fallout for Latin America The US Fed's tightening cycle is unlikely to be a major concern for much of Latin America, although Chile's large current account deficit may become a growing vulnerability. The Fed’s move may also... 18th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia’s inflation shock, default & peace talks Russia’s default saga seems to be settled for the time being, with creditors reportedly now receiving scheduled Eurobond payments, but the fact that it came so close to default suggests that sanctions... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Liu reassures market, lockdowns to stay targeted Liu He's promise this week to be more considerate to market investors in how new policies are communicated and implemented doesn't constitute a fundamental change of direction. Meanwhile, the risk of... 18th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Another record rise in house prices The second consecutive record monthly gain in house prices in February, as well as the further rise in consumer price inflation to almost 6%, means the Bank of Canada will be eager to continue hiking... 18th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) Retail sales made a strong start to 2022 and, while the hit to household purchasing power from higher gasoline prices is a headwind to further growth in sales volumes, the fact that consumer... 18th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Assessing the impact of the Ukraine war Next week we will learn more about the extent to which the Ukraine war is impacting economic activity. We have cut our GDP forecast by one percentage point for this year, but the risks to that... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP (Q4 2021) The 1.8% q/q rise in Chile’s GDP in Q4 kept output well above its pre-pandemic trend but, with the economy now coming back down to earth, there is a growing chance of a recession this year. Meanwhile... 18th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook War in Ukraine adds to uncertainty; retail most at risk While the direct impact of the war in Ukraine is likely to be small, we think there will be indirect consequences for euro-zone commercial property markets. Economic growth is expected to be slower... 18th March 2022 · 31 mins read
India Economics Weekly Wheat exports, inflation jump, loan moratorium expiry India's wheat exports have soared recently and stand to benefit further from the shock to global supply caused by the war in Ukraine. But the consequences for India's external position will be small... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea COVID surge, Thai baht to weaken Despite surging cases of COVID-19 in Korea, the economy appears to be holding up well. We are sticking with our view that the central bank will resume its tightening cycle in April. Meanwhile, the... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Iran nuclear deal, wiring shortage a fillip to North Africa The Iran nuclear deal appears to be on the brink of being revived and, were that to happen, the lifting of sanctions would provide a major direct boost to Iran’s economy. Increased oil output could... 17th March 2022 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Ukraine war heightens inflation and external risks The surge in commodity prices as a result of the war in Ukraine will have several repercussions for India’s economy. As a major net commodity importer, its terms of trade will deteriorate and we think... 17th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Commodity shifts to worsen most EMs’ external positions Major oil producers are among the main beneficiaries of the rise in commodity prices due to the war in Ukraine. As a result, we’re becoming less concerned about Colombia’s external vulnerabilities. In... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Machinery Orders (Jan. 2022) The fall in machinery orders in January suggests that business investment may not recover much this quarter from a disappointing 2021. But with corporate profits recovering strongly last year, firms... 17th March 2022 · 2 mins read
