Asia Chart Pack Omicron fears stall plans to reopen borders Amid all the uncertainty caused by the arrival of Omicron, one thing we can say with some conviction is that the new variant is further bad news for the region’s beleaguered tourism industry. Up until... 29th November 2021 · 15 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Nov.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for November showed a broad-based rise in industrial sentiment, but services sentiment softened further. With restrictions on activity being re-imposed amid... 29th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (November) Despite the slight deterioration on the month, November’s EC business and consumer survey showed that economic sentiment in the euro-zone was high before the recent news about the Omicron variant. It... 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Diverging outlook for monetary policy While the RBNZ has lifted interest rates by 50bp and signalled that as much as 200bp of tightening is still to come, the RBA’s central scenario remains that interest rates won’t be raised until 2024... 29th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Retail Sales (Oct. 2021) Retail sales kept rising in October despite another drop in motor vehicles sales. With supply disruptions now starting to ease and mobility picking up, they should continue to increase. 29th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update First thoughts on Omicron impact With cases of the new Omicron variant being reported on several continents now, there is a good chance that it is already present in the United States. We still know almost nothing definitive about... 28th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly New face at Banxico, Chile election wrap-up The unexpected change in the nomination for Banxico’s next governor, to Victoria Rodríguez from Arturo Herrera, hit investor confidence but we don't think this switch alters the outlook for Banxico’s... 26th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Lira crisis, MNB hikes, Ukraine-IMF, Romanian politics This week has been dominated by the collapse in the Turkish lira and all our research on the crisis can be found here. While Turkey’s problems have been driven by a ‘head-in-the-sand’ approach to... 26th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rising Covid fears will keep policymakers dovish It is too early to judge how serious the B.1.1.529 variant will turn out to be, but it certainly reinforces the case for central banks to be ultra-cautious when withdrawing their policy support. We... 26th November 2021 · 11 mins read
UK Economics Weekly New virus strain carries dual risks to activity and inflation The new COVID-19 variant creates the dual risk of weaker near-term activity and, by exacerbating current shortages, the possibility that inflation remains higher for longer. This may make some MPC... 26th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada avoids winter wave, but new variant a threat Winter is coming but, unlike Europe and the US Midwest too, Canada hasn’t seen a new wave of coronavirus infections. The emergence of a new potentially more-virulent coronavirus strain in South Africa... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Capacity constraints put a ceiling on export outlook In the long-run, the global spread of highly-transmissible coronavirus strains may make China’s zero-COVID stance untenable but the immediate response to concerns about B.1.1.529 is more likely to be... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Recoveries trembling under new virus variant threat A concerning new virus variant identified in Southern Africa has already prompted the re-imposition of restrictions on travellers from the region and triggered a flight to safety in global financial... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update First thoughts on Omicron It goes without saying that it’s still too early to say exactly how big a threat the new Omicron variant poses to the global economy. We’ll have more to say as the picture becomes clearer, but in the... 26th November 2021 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Reforms on the back burner, mobile tariff hikes With key state elections coming onto the horizon, we doubt that any contentious economic reforms will be implemented during the winter session of parliament, which kicks off next week. Meanwhile, the... 26th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Oct. 2021) The 4.9% m/m jump in retail sales in October brought them very close to their May peak and supports our view that consumption will reverse nearly all of the plunge during the lockdown this quarter. 26th November 2021 · 3 mins read
