Emerging Markets Economic Outlook A slower recovery in 2022 Growth across much of the emerging world will be weaker this year than last, with Emerging Europe and China in particular likely to fall short of consensus expectations. The EM monetary tightening... 28th January 2022 · 28 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Case for rate hikes in Sweden continues to build With the Swedish economy flying, core inflation picking up, and inflation expectations back above target, the stage is surely set for a hawkish mea culpa at the Riksbank’s next policy announcement, on... 28th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jan.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator weakened in January as the Omicron wave took a toll on economic activity, particularly in the services sector. The survey also showed that supply shortages remained... 28th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jan.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for January generally showed sentiment in Central and Eastern Europe holding up across all sectors of the economy. With Omicron waves likely to peak in the... 28th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea’s COVID shift, Q1 Outlooks A successful vaccination campaign means that, despite a surge in COVID cases, Korea is sticking with its plans to reopen the economy. This supports our view that Omicron will have only a small impact... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Region to lag behind as debt risks mount Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic recovery from the pandemic is likely to remain one of the weakest of any region over 2022-23 and our GDP growth forecasts are generally below the consensus. The latest... 28th January 2022 · 23 mins read
Europe Data Response German GDP (Q4 2021) The decline in economic activity at the end of last year left GDP well below its pre-pandemic level and much weaker than in other major advanced economies. Activity seems to have stabilised in January... 28th January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q4 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy barely grew in Q4 despite a rebound in goods exports. And with stricter containment measures imposed this month to contain the latest outbreak, we expect an outright contraction... 28th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response French & Spanish GDP (Q4 2021) Both the French and Spanish economies ended 2021 on a strong note, but for different reasons. In France, domestic demand pushed output above its pre-virus level, a boon for President Macron ahead of... 28th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Stricter listing rules to lift profitability further Profit margins of listed Japanese firms hit a record high at the end of last year despite the headwinds from goods shortages and soaring input costs. That rise has a large structural component... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Inflationary surge prompting monetary tightening New Zealand’s inflation surged to a 30-year high of 5.9% in Q4. And while Australia’s 3.5% was much lower, it is well above the RBA’s 2-3% target band. Trimmed mean inflation is about one percentage... 28th January 2022 · 11 mins read
China Economics Weekly Too much of a good thing? The R&D intensity of China’s economy continued to rise last year and is converging toward the levels of advanced economies. But that’s not necessarily a good thing for a country with much lower... 28th January 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly What to expect from the Union Budget For watchers of India’s economy, next week is one of the most significant of the year as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman delivers the Union Budget for FY22/23 on Tuesday. Unusually, the fiscal... 28th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Metals Outlook Prices to succumb to weaker demand before long Soaring energy prices have given a renewed boost to industrial metals prices in recent months but, if we are right, and power costs ease back from April, we think prices will fall sharply later in... 27th January 2022 · 19 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Industry shifts into gear amid signs of easing shortages Industry across Emerging Europe turned a corner in Q4 as auto production rebounded strongly. This comes amid signs that supply shortages are starting to ease; our proprietary shortages dashboard... 27th January 2022 · 12 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q4), Durable Goods (Dec.) The acceleration in GDP growth to 6.9% annualised in the fourth quarter, from 2.3% in the third, mainly reflects a record surge in inventories, which will be partly reversed in the first quarter of... 27th January 2022 · 2 mins read
