China Activity Monitor Virus disruption compounding property strains China’s economy started 2021 above its pre-pandemic path of output, thanks to stimulus and surging global export demand. Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy is ending the year... 20th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign investors have been net sellers of EM assets for much of this year and tighter monetary policy in the US and a stronger dollar suggest that the environment for EMs next year will remain... 20th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s crisis in four charts Following yesterday’s interest rate cut in Turkey, the lira has plunged again and is now faring worse than other Emerging Europe currencies have done during recent sudden stops. There are some signs... 17th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly 2021 in review For the last Weekly of the year we look back at some our key 2021 forecasts. Our biggest wins were predicting that Brazil’s government would effectively cast aside its spending cap and that Colombia... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think BoE hikes will push up Gilt yields eventually While the yields of both short- and long dated Gilts have moved little following yesterday’s surprise rate hike by the Bank of England we still expect them to rise as monetary policy is tightened... 17th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Rapid manufacturing rebound, boosters, yen forecast The rapid recovery in car exports in November probably has further to run and continued strength into next year poses upside risks to our forecast for a cumulative 3.3% rise in Japanese exports across... 17th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong Q4 but growing downside risks to Q1 The activity data released this week suggest that the economy was in a strong position in the fourth quarter and the price data imply that inflationary pressures are broadening. The surge in... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland overheating fears, Turkey crisis rumbles on Concerns that Poland's economy is overheating will have only been reinforced by figures this week showing a surge in wage growth and a sharp widening of the current account deficit in October. Loose... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Markets wrong to doubt the Fed Market pricing suggests investors remain unconvinced that the now-hawkish Fed will hike interest rates as high as officials are projecting, either because inflation will drop back more quickly or... 17th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Virus waves across SSA, SARB tightening cycle After a week filled with central banks around the globe pivoting in a more hawkish direction, we have now pencilled more hikes into our interest rate profile for South Africa (but only after a pause... 17th December 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Weekly What we got right and wrong in 2021 and two big risks for 2022 A look at our forecasts for 2021 reveals more hits than misses. While the consensus thought GDP would grow by 5.4% in 2021, we forecast that it would rise by 7.5%. We don't yet have data for Q4, but... 17th December 2021 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Two years on Two years since some cases of severe pneumonia started to draw attention in Wuhan, China is facing a convergence of economic headwinds. The PBOC is treading very carefully but with the leadership... 17th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB slightly more hawkish than expected Following a the ECB’s slightly hawkish policy shift this week, we have penciled in a rate hike for 2024 and think the chance of a 2023 lift-off has risen. The big picture, though, is that the ECB will... 17th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Asia will not follow the Fed Domestic factors, rather than the actions of the US Federal Reserve, will determine what happens to monetary policy across Asia over the coming year. – This will be the last Economics Weekly for 2021... 17th December 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB to take ECB’s lead; Stoltenberg for NB? Having drawn flak from domestic banks for keeping interest rates well below zero since 2015, the SNB would surely take the chance to raise its policy rate at the earliest possibility after the ECB... 17th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update The World in 2022 We expect growth in almost every major economy to slow next year, with the US and China in particular falling some way short of current expectations. At the same time, while headline inflation will... 17th December 2021 · 4 mins read
