Global Economics Update PMIs show some signs of supply shortages easing November’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial production has continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace than earlier this year. There are tentative signs that supply disruptions may... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Red-hot Chile set to cool Chile’s economy has been operating above potential for several months but there are signs that activity is starting to cool. And policy tightening, falls in copper prices and the possibility of more... 1st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Disruptions no longer worsening, but Omicron a threat November’s PMIs offered tentative signs that the worst of the supply disruption may have passed, but the bigger picture is that manufacturers in the emerging world remain stretched. And while it’s... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Oct.) Russia’s economy made a mixed start to Q4 as industrial production recovered while retail sales growth slowed sharply. With the country’s severe virus outbreak and low vaccine coverage set to keep... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Renewed restrictions: inflationary or disinflationary? If Omicron turns out to be malign enough to prompt tighter restrictions, we suspect that the net result would initially be for inflation to be lower than otherwise. But by worsening product and... 1st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Pandemic-era lessons for the Swiss franc Given the uncertainty around Omicron, and the revealed preference of the SNB in recent weeks to largely stay out of the FX market, we would not be surprised to see the Swiss franc rise further against... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to keep policy rate guidance unchanged Growing wage pressures and the renewed strength of house prices are likely to concern the Bank of Canada but, with oil prices plunging in the past week due to fears about the Omicron variant, we doubt... 1st December 2021 · 7 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Nov.) The November ISM manufacturing survey suggests that supply shortages are yet to ease significantly, but it does at least echo anecdotal reports that they are no longer getting worse. 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs still paint a bleak picture for commodities Taken together, China’s manufacturing PMIs point to somewhat stronger industrial activity in November, but this was almost entirely due to improved power supply last month rather than a pick-up in... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update South East Asia rebounding, but disruption set to linger Disruption to industrial activity across South East Asia has eased considerably in the past few weeks, helping to relax global supply constraints, especially in the automotive sector. However, a... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI rebounded last month, but the emerging fourth virus wave and the threat from the Omicron variant has clouded the outlook for activity in the sector and the wider... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) The manufacturing PMIs in November were surprisingly strong across the board, but with supply chains stretched and the emergence of the Omicron variant clouding the outlook, there are reasons to be... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI & Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) Inflation surprised on the upside in Switzerland in November, but this was due to temporary factors and it is likely to fall back to below 1.0% over the coming months. The upshot is that there is next... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The jump in India’s manufacturing PMI in November suggests that the recovery is still ongoing, although it appears that global supply shortages have remained a drag. And with vaccination coverage in... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
China Data Response China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov.) The Caixin manufacturing index published today slipped under 50 last month on the back of softer domestic demand. This contrasts with the official survey released yesterday. Taken together, the... 1st December 2021 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Nov.) November Manufacturing PMIs suggest that the rebound in industry from the Delta wave in South East Asia continued last month, and we suspect it has further to run. Drop-In: India – How much scarring... 1st December 2021 · 2 mins read
