US Economics Weekly Shortages appear to be stabilising As it turns out, employment gains were much stronger than previously thought over the final few months of last year and the Omicron wave did little to slow the pace of growth in January. With the... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Omicron disruption already in the rear-view mirror The data releases this week suggest that the Omicron wave was more disruptive than we anticipated, but there are already positive signs that the economy will strongly rebound this month. 4th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: ‘BIG’ expectations for SONA speech South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa, facing an intra-party leadership contest in December, is set to use next week’s State of the Nation Address (SONA) as an opportunity to drum up support. From... 4th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update Russia/Ukraine: near-term inflation; long-term decoupling A Russian invasion of Ukraine or severe ratcheting up of sanctions would add as much as 2%-pts to inflation in DMs, particularly in Europe. Given the inflationary backdrop and hawkish signals from... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Tightening financial conditions a growing headwind Financial conditions have continued to tighten in Latin America and Emerging Europe and will likely remain restrictive throughout the year, weighing on activity in both regions. Meanwhile, although... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 467,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January is even stronger than it looks, as it came despite the spike in absenteeism driven by the Omicron virus wave and was accompanied by significant upward... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Weak lira boost missing, Poland-EU conflict hopes? The latest indicators raise concern that the boost to Turkey's external competitiveness from a weak lira may not be having the desired effect. Meanwhile, positive developments in Poland this week... 4th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus A closer look at current account risks in Lat Am We expect that falls in commodity prices will cause current account positions to worsen across the region this year. While external positions will remain secure in most major Latin American economies... 4th February 2022 · 13 mins read
China Economics Weekly HK virus woes, holiday travel, fiscal support Hong Kong will be an exception to the global pattern that Omicron inflicts less economic damage than earlier virus variants. The city’s zero-COVID policies are proving far less effective than the... 4th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The fall in euro-zone retail sales volumes in December means that sales growth slowed significantly in Q4 as a whole. While we expect consumer spending to recover over the coming months when... 4th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Encouraging developments in the Philippines The Philippines has been hit harder than any other country in the region by the pandemic, but the past week has at least brought some good news. The latest Omicron wave appears to have had only a... 4th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy back in recovery mode next month Omicron disruption to supply chains was already holding back industrial production in some sectors in December. And with domestic cases surging since then the recovery will have gone into reverse at... 4th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly UAE corporation tax, Egypt-EU trade spat, OPEC+ The UAE’s plan to introduce a corporation tax next year will help to diversify public revenues away from oil and may provide Dubai’s government with greater resources to step in if corporate debt... 3rd February 2022 · 7 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jan.) January’s batch of whole economy PMIs showed activity in non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf slowed at the start of this year as governments tightened restrictions to tackle fresh Omicron-driven virus... 3rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jan.) The final Composite PMIs for January confirm that the euro-zone economy started 2022 on a weak note but the improving health situation suggests that growth will pick back up over the rest of the... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response PMI Surveys (Jan.) The drop in India’s PMIs in January suggest that activity weakened as the Omicron variant spread across the country. But the impact appears to be much less severe than that of the last two virus waves... 3rd February 2022 · 2 mins read
