UK Economics Russia/Ukraine and the risks to inflation If a Russia/Ukraine conflict were to materialise, the likely upward pressure on energy prices would keep UK inflation higher for longer via higher fuel prices in the near term and rising utility bills... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor The Omicron hit to activity has been small compared to past waves and should prove short-lived now that cases are falling in all regions. In fact, high-frequency data suggest that activity has already... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Ukraine adds to inflation risks, SE Asia reopening The recent rise in oil prices poses a key upside risk to our inflation forecasts. We already expect rate hikes this year in Korea, India and Indonesia. We think Taiwan, where price pressures have... 18th February 2022 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly Green shoots in the housing market Local-level support for the property market is stepping up a gear, with down-payment requirements being eased in a handful of cities. This follows national-level efforts to push down mortgage rates... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly LIC IPO unlikely to ignite privatisation drive Local media has been awash with commentary about the initial public offering (IPO) of Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) after the state-owned behemoth this week submitted its draft prospectus. From a... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Retail Sales (Jan.) A solid rebound in retail sales in January suggests the hit to activity from Omicron was smaller and shorter than previously thought. Even so, the cost of living crisis will restrain retail sales this... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Vaccine boost, surging manufacturing profits Services spending finally showed signs of life last quarter, underlining that the vaccine boost is finally filtering through. Another reason to be confident about the outlook is that consumer price... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Better news on inflation is coming The further rise in CPI inflation to 7.5% in January and hawkish comments from Fed officials have seen markets rush to price in a series of aggressive interest rate hikes this year. But recent weeks... 17th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) Nigeria’s GDP growth was unchanged at 4.0% y/y in Q4 as a slightly smaller drag from the oil sector was offset by a weaker performance in the non-oil economy. But we think that growth will drop back... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Aramco-PIF equity transfer, Russia-Ukraine crisis The transfer of a 4% stake in Aramco from the Saudi government to the Public Investment Fund will not diversify government revenues away from oil as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would like to... 17th February 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Update Olympics highlights growing rift with the West At the Beijing Winter Olympics, China is once again displaying its sporting prowess. But the international reception has been notably icier than that for the 2008 Summer Games, highlighting that China... 17th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q4, revised) Omicron is likely to prove only a small stumbling block on the road to recovery after the strong growth of late 2021. We still expect GDP to return to its pre-pandemic trend later this year. 17th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia-Ukraine and the impact on the rest of the region The rest of Emerging Europe is particularly exposed if a further escalation of Russia-Ukraine tensions lead to higher global energy prices and disruptions to commodity exports, with Bulgaria and the... 16th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Weak investment highlights long-run challenges Business investment has been much weaker in Canada than the US since the pandemic, which helps to explain why productivity growth has lagged. There are reasons to be optimistic about the next couple... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 1.4% m/m rebound in industrial production in January appears to confirm that the Omicron wave has had surprisingly little impact on the economy. That said, the weakening global backdrop suggests... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Ukraine’s macro vulnerabilities Ukraine’s economy as a whole is in a better position to weather significant capital flight and sharp falls in the hryvnia than at any point in the past decade. But even so, there are key pockets of... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
