US Economics Weekly Rising inflation adds to pressure on the Fed The news this week that CPI inflation climbed to a new high of 7.5% in January prompted another surge in interest rate expectations. 11th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Polish hawks, Russia-Ukraine latest, Czech budget Comments from Poland’s central bank Governor Glapinski this week underlined the hawkish shift from the NBP and support our view that interest rates will rise to at least 4.5% in this cycle. Meanwhile... 11th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem betting on productivity rebound Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem made the case this week that productivity growth should rebound strongly this year and next. While we agree that a rebound is on the cards, we judge that the Bank... 11th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EMs looking well placed to weather tightening in DMs Rising inflation has put major DM central banks under pressure and interest rate expectations have risen. But most emerging markets look relatively well placed to weather a period of DM policy... 11th February 2022 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Holiday spending disappoints, vaccines pay dividends In some respects, activities around the Lunar New Year holiday were closer to normal this year than last, but tourism spending was still depressed. We expect further monetary easing to be announced in... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Ingves overrules logic and the hawkish mutineers The main takeaways from this week’s Riksbank announcement were that a) Governor Ingves is stubbornly dovish, and; b) three of the six members of the Executive Board advocate “QT” this year. Given that... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB only partly rows back from hawkish shift Sifting through the numerous statements by ECB policymakers this week leaves us still thinking that the ECB is likely to “recalibrate” its plans in March and pave the way for an end to QE and a first... 11th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update SONA: Ramaphosa shies from letting off the fireworks South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa vowed to press ahead with his signature reform drive to boost the economy in Thursday’s State of the Nation Address, but most initiatives will take time to... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) The solid 1.2% m/m rise in Mexico’s industrial production in December was partly driven by a strong rise in auto production as global supply shortages eased. However, Omicron-related disruption will... 11th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore budget, elections loom in the Philippines The focus of Singapore’s 2022 budget next Friday will be on steps to raise revenues to help deal with a rapidly ageing population, as the government shifts away from supporting the economy through the... 11th February 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics GDP (Dec. & Q4) When combined with the CPI inflation rate of 5.4%, the 0.2% m/m fall in GDP in December meant that the economy experienced a taste of stagflation at the end of last year. As it was driven by the... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Dec.) Turkey’s latest activity figures suggest that easing supply constraints and the boost to competitiveness from a weak lira supported industry in December, but household spending suffered as the... 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q4) Malaysia’s economy rebounded strongly last quarter and, despite headwinds from Omicron, should continue to recover throughout 2022. 11th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Higher inflation to persist and real rates stay negative Recent developments have supported our view that the pandemic will not do much permanent damage to the level of GDP in most countries, especially developed markets. Nonetheless, it will accelerate... 10th February 2022 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Less to Brazil’s investment boom than meets the eye Fixed investment in Brazil rose at one of its fastest rates in the last 50 years in 2021 which, while a positive development, was driven by factors that are unlikely to be sustained. Fixed investment... 10th February 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update US-China trade deal stalemate will drag on China made none of the additional purchases it committed to under the Phase One trade deal. The Biden administration isn’t pleased but doesn’t have good options to force China to do more. And China... 10th February 2022 · 5 mins read
