Capital Daily The rally in gold may reverse We doubt that the rise in the price of gold in 2022 so far will be sustained. While a lot hinges on how geopolitical tensions play out, our forecast is that it will drop back to $1,600 per ounce by... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Normal service to resume for Swiss/Bund bond spread Yields on 10-year Swiss government bonds have moved in lockstep with those of Bunds since the start of the pandemic, and thus followed their German counterparts above zero in January. While the Swiss... 21st February 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics IHS Markit/CIPS Flash PMIs (Feb.) February’s punchy flash PMIs provide even more evidence that the economy has rebounded swiftly after the hit from Omicron. And beneath the headline numbers, there are tentative but encouraging signs... 21st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Feb.) The surge in the euro-zone flash Composite PMI in February suggests that activity is recovering well and supports our view that GDP will rise by around 0.5% q/q in Q1. There are tentative signs that... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan export orders unlikely to keep rising rapidly Taiwan new export orders picked up for a third straight month in January. While we expect this trend to go into reverse soon, a large backlog of unmet orders will keep the region’s exporters busy... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jan.) Poland’s economic recovery continued to motor along at the start of this year as industrial production and retail sales growth picked up sharply in January. This came alongside further signs of an... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Post-booster bounce in the spring Services spending jumped to only 3% below its pre-virus level in Q4 2021 despite having begun the quarter on a weak footing with curfews still in place for bars and restaurants across many regions in... 21st February 2022 · 10 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q4) After a strong rebound in Q4, the pace of Thailand’s economic recovery over the coming year will largely depend on how quickly tourists return. While we expect a sustained recovery in the tourism... 21st February 2022 · 3 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Flash PMIs (Feb. 2022) The February flash PMIs suggest that the Omicron wave has dealt a significant blow to economic activity. But with that wave now having broken, we think Japan’s economy is set for a rebound stronger... 21st February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (2021) The 4.7% expansion in Russian GDP in 2021 is consistent with a marked acceleration in growth in Q4. We expect the recovery to slow this year but the backdrop of a large and positive output gap will... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Colombia’s growth spurt, Brazil’s rally Q4 GDP figures out this week showed that Colombia’s surprisingly strong recovery has been fuelled by rapid consumer spending growth, but this is unlikely to last as the boost from the re-opening fades... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s budget to sow seeds of fiscal slippage South Africa’s upcoming budget speech will probably contain better-than-projected fiscal results, allowing the finance minister to extend temporary spending measures without undermining near-term... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy unscathed by Omicron In a week when we learned that producer price inflation, retail sales and industrial production all came in hotter than expected in January, interest rate expectations nevertheless declined, as... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) Retail sales fell in December as the Omicron wave took hold but, rather oddly, the preliminary estimate suggests that decline was more than revered in January, even as coronavirus restrictions were... 18th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia-Ukraine, Israel’s blockbuster GDP, EU funds Russia-Ukraine tensions dominated the headlines again this week and all of our research on the global implications, Ukraine's economy and the rest of the region can be found here. Meanwhile... 18th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB consensus building on policy normalisation While Russia-Ukraine tensions escalated further still this week, the economic spillovers to the euro-zone are likely to be limited and are therefore unlikely to change the ECB’s policy assessment... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
