Canada Economic Outlook Tighter policy to drive GDP growth below potential Economic activity should expand at a strong pace this year but, with the Bank of Canada set to tighten policy rapidly, we expect the quarterly pace of GDP growth to slow below potential in 2023, as... 21st April 2022 · 19 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook High commodity prices won’t lift all boats The surge in commodity prices will drive stronger regional growth than the consensus expects this year, but not all economies in Latin America will benefit. While Brazil and Colombia will see a terms... 21st April 2022 · 26 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Apr.) The rise in consumer confidence in April was slightly better than expected. Nevertheless, confidence is still very low and points to household spending falling in April. That’s consistent with our... 21st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Central Bankers’ confidence dilemma Inflation is surging in both Australia and New Zealand. That is putting pressure on central banks to hike interest rates to slow the economy and curb inflation. But both the RBNZ and the RBA... 21st April 2022 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Recession risks take centre stage The Russian economy will collapse this year and we expect spillovers from the war in Ukraine to cause a recession in many of the smaller countries in the region, particularly Bulgaria and the Baltic... 20th April 2022 · 27 mins read
US Chart Pack Better news on inflation won’t stop the Fed While we are confident that inflation will fall back sharply in the second half of this year, that will not stop the Fed delivering a series of 50bp rate hikes at its upcoming meetings. Although... 20th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Who holds frontier markets’ foreign debt? China and private bondholders have become increasingly important creditors to governments of many frontier markets, including some of those that are now finding themselves in debt distress. This is... 20th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Two key market implications of China’s economic slowdown Growing evidence of slowing economic growth in China suggests to us that government bond yields there will continue to fall, and that the renminbi will – eventually – follow suit. 19th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy on the up Saudi Arabia’s economic recovery has strengthened in recent months and, with oil output set to be raised further, the economy will record its fastest rate of growth in over a decade in 2022. 19th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Reopening could be a damp squib With all domestic restrictions gone and the booster rollout further severing the link between cases and deaths, the conditions for a reopening bounce are in place. Moreover, consumers have ample room... 19th April 2022 · 10 mins read
China Data Response China GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) Official GDP growth beat expectations last quarter but it still slowed in q/q terms. In practice, the figures probably understate the slowdown. And growth looks set to be even weaker in Q2 given the... 18th April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The strong 0.9% rise in industrial production in March reflected a sharp rebound in autos production as well as another big increase in mining output. The US will not be immune to the global slowdown... 15th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tight labour market, French election in focus While there is very little spare capacity in the euro-zone’s labour market, this has not yet fed through to wage growth. The tight labour market and high inflation are likely to push wages up... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Floods hit SA recovery, Nigeria’s presidential race This week’s floods in South Africa’s KwaZulu-Natal province are the latest in a series of hits to the economic recovery. Elsewhere, the news this week from Nigeria that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 0.5% m/m rise in retail sales in March was flattered by a price-related surge in the nominal value of gasoline sales, with the details suggesting that consumption fell in real terms. 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) The 4.2% m/m rebound in manufacturing sales in February was much better than we were expecting, as firms continued to boost production even though the blockade at the key Ambassador Bridge border... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read