Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Defiant NBP, Turkish policymakers tighten their grip Poland's central bank continued its tightening cycle this week, but recent comments from policymakers have made us concerned that it is failing to appreciate the extent, persistence and possible... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone to keep calm and Omicr-on in 2022 While the new year has started much like 2021 did, with a surge in Covid cases and consumers becoming more cautious, the response of governments has been markedly different. In general, blanket... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Dec.) & Retail Sales (Nov.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator decreased markedly in December, as the surge in Covid cases and tightening of restrictions took their toll on activity in the services sector. The survey also... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Dec.) The EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for December showed that the Eastern European economies rebounded last month as Delta virus waves abated, but Central Europe saw further weakness. With the... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines in no rush to hike, new growth forecasts Falling inflation and an increasingly uncertain economic outlook add weight to our non-consensus view that the central bank in the Philippines (BSP) will not tighten monetary policy in 2022. Meanwhile... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly Latest virus hit smaller than in Q3 but Omicron looms China is recording the highest number of new COVID infections since the initial lockdown in Q1 2020. But the current outbreak has not spread as widely across the country as the Delta wave last summer... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
India Economics Weekly Cautious optimism despite oncoming Omicron wave India is about to be hit by a huge Omicron wave. New COVID infections have surged fifteen-fold in the last two weeks. But we’re optimistic that the economy will prove more resilient than it has in the... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Recovery in industrial activity will run out of steam Japan’s car industry has rebounded quickly from the disruptions caused by Delta waves across South-East Asia a few months ago. But amidst persistent supply shortages, output hasn’t quite returned to... 7th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (November) The unexpected decline in German industrial production in November increases the chance that GDP fell in the last quarter of 2021. And with the Omicron variant likely to hit Germany hard in the coming... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Japan Wages & Household Spending (Nov. 2021) Wage growth fell to zero in November due a slump in bonus payments, but it should accelerate as the labour market tightens and the recent reopening feeds into a renewed recovery in overtime and bonus... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Five key calls and five unknowns for Canada in 2022 We expect GDP to grow strongly once the current restrictions are eased, but we are sceptical that either GDP growth or inflation will be as high this year as widely anticipated. This leads us to think... 6th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Omicron won’t cause euro-zone to contract in Q1 Omicron will reduce economic activity in the coming weeks due to tighter restrictions, consumer caution and absenteeism. Our best guess is that economic activity in the euro-zone will decline in... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update COVID Recovery Monitor Global coronavirus cases have surged, and pressure is mounting on health systems as hospitalisations rise. Given that Omicron is milder than past variants, governments are typically leaning on booster... 6th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Key calls for Switzerland and the Nordics in 2022 We think that GDP growth in Switzerland and the Nordics will be slower than most anticipate this year, and the boosts to inflation from energy prices will subside over the year. But while the SNB will... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rising yields and high valuations may limit gains in US stocks Although we do not think that US equities will continue to fall sharply, we nonetheless forecast that their gains over the next couple of years will fall well short of those in 2021. 6th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov) The jump in the goods trade surplus to a 13-year high in November is another sign that the flooding in British Columbia had only a small impact on overall economic activity. It confirms that the... 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
