Global Economics Update PMIs: Activity weakening as price pressures strengthen The latest manufacturing PMIs suggest that activity got off to a weaker start in Q2, as lockdowns in China led to a sharp fall in activity there. Forward-looking components of the surveys – including... 2nd May 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a 20-month low of 55.4 in April, from 57.1, is mostly due to weakening demand amid a broader slowdown in global manufacturing, rather than a renewed... 2nd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Prices to stay high for longer The war in Ukraine and its negative impact on commodities supply has prompted us to revise up our forecasts for the prices of most commodities in 2022. Regardless of the outcome of the war, we think... 29th April 2022 · 40 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA’s privatisation push, Africa’s growing food insecurity Momentum appears to be building within South Africa’s ruling ANC party to shift towards a more private sector-led economic model. But given the party’s track record, we wouldn’t hold our breath... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Business surveys strong, but clouds gather for housing The CFIB Business Barometer remained very strong in April and seems to bode well for the short-term outlook, but signs of a sharp slowdown in the housing market suggest that higher interest rates may... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Tightening cycles to be gradual Central banks across the region have recently turned more hawkish. Over the past month or so, policymakers in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan have all tightened policy... 29th April 2022 · 14 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Hungary’s growing imbalances, Russian gas flows Comments from Hungary's central bank this week suggest that policymakers are moving closer towards a joint tightening of monetary and fiscal policy to cool demand and narrow the twin deficits... 29th April 2022 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack China will barely grow in dollar terms this year President Xi has reportedly told officials to ensure that China’s real GDP growth exceeds that of the US this year. This is likely to happen on paper. The published data usually confirm that growth... 29th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Indonesia palm oil ban Indonesia has caused turmoil in global commodity markets over the past week with its decision to ban exports of palm oil. However, given the importance of the sector to Indonesia’s economy and the... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) The jump in GDP in February means that, despite the Omicron wave, the economy was even stronger than expected in the first quarter. But signs of a sharp slowdown in the housing market in April suggest... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to ignore Q1 GDP and hike regardless We doubt that the unexpected 1.4% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP will stop the Fed from hiking its policy rate by a bigger 50bp next week or from launching quantitative tightening. The Fed... 29th April 2022 · 8 mins read
India Data Response Core Infrastructure Industries (Mar.) Growth in India’s core infrastructure industries slowed in March as production of some energy commodities fell. However, there are tentative signs that the rise in commodity prices caused by the war... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy struggling, euro heading to parity Data released this week showed that the euro-zone economy eked out a small expansion in Q1, but we think that it will contract in Q2. The weak economic outlook combined with the ECB's likely more... 29th April 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Economics Our new forecasts, pound risks adding to price pressures Even though we think the pound will continue to weaken against the US dollar, from $1.26 now to around $1.22 by the end of the year, that’s unlikely to significantly boost CPI inflation as we think it... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q1 Prov.) The pick-up in Mexico’s GDP growth to 0.9% q/q last quarter was largely a result of a strong carryover from late 2021, and the economy was weakening sharply heading into Q2. As the headwinds from high... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2022) and Flash HICP (April) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q1 means that the region will avoid a technical recession in the first half of the year. But rising inflation and the fallout from the Ukraine war mean that GDP... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
