India Data Response PMI Surveys (Dec.) India’s PMIs remained buoyant in December, suggesting that activity continued picking up towards the end of 2021. We think the recovery will gain momentum this year but a recent sharp jump in... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Key calls for 2022 We expect GDP to return to its pre-virus path in the second half of the year as services spending finally returns to near-normal. However, the risks to that forecast remain tilted to the downside as... 5th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturers end 2021 on a solid footing December’s PMIs suggest that EM manufacturers ended last year on a firm note, with headline indices rising in much of Emerging Europe and Emerging Asia. Encouragingly, input and output price... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Mfg. PMIs show signs of improvement pre-Omicron December’s manufacturing PMIs revealed that global industry rounded off 2021 on a positive note, with output growth picking up and price pressures easing as supply problems improved. But the PMIs gave... 4th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The ISM manufacturing index suggests that the pace of industrial activity growth remained reasonably solid at the end of last year, but the survey came too early to capture the potentially significant... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll growth slowing ahead of Omicron hit The chaos caused by the rapid spread of the Omicron variant came too late to have much effect on December payrolls, which we estimate increased by a healthy 350,000. But the huge numbers of people... 4th January 2022 · 3 mins read
China Data Response China PMIs (Dec.) The latest surveys suggest that the pace of industrial growth picked up by more than expected last month. This was largely thanks to improving supply chain conditions and lower raw material prices... 4th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Industry momentum strong going into 2022 Manufacturing PMIs and timely trade data reveal that Asia’s export-focussed industry gained momentum at the turn of the year. While the Omicron variant presents a key threat to the outlook, it is... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Restrictions to weigh on first-quarter GDP growth The economy gained momentum at the start of the fourth quarter and we have revised up our forecast for fourth-quarter GDP growth to 5.5% annualised, from 4.0%. Given the rapidly deteriorating... 23rd December 2021 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Nov.) The November durable goods and income & spending data are consistent with our estimate that fourth-quarter GDP growth was 6.5% annualised, but point to a slowdown in early 2022. 23rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The strong rise in GDP in October and preliminary estimate of another solid gain in November imply that fourth quarter GDP growth will be stronger than the Bank of Canada anticipated, and means the... 23rd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Omicron won’t hold back consumption for long The Omicron has lifted new virus cases to a record high, though hospitalisations remain low. We estimate that there are around 2000 hospital beds available for Covid-19 patients in New South Wales... 23rd December 2021 · 11 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Omicron may hinder already weakening recoveries Recoveries across Latin America have lost momentum in Q4 even though, unlike in other regions such as Europe, new COVID-19 cases generally remain low and containment measures are still light-touch at... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Manufacturing rebound should continue into 2022 Q4 is shaping up to be strong in line with our forecast. Mobility data point to another sizeable rebound in consumer spending, and strong export data and optimistic firm forecasts suggest that... 22nd December 2021 · 10 mins read
Asia Chart Pack What Omicron means for monetary policy in Asia Most countries in Emerging Asia have now recorded cases of Omicron, and the experience from elsewhere in the world suggests that it is only a matter of time before there is widespread community... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
China Chart Pack The People’s Bank is not pleased The People’s Bank purchased nearly $6bn in foreign exchange last month, by our estimate. That’s not much in the context of China’s cross-border trade and investment flows. But it was the biggest... 22nd December 2021 · 12 mins read
