Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The RBA’s requirements for a rate rise Governor Lowe outlined in a speech earlier this week that before interest rates are raised from their record low of 1.5% the RBA will want to have “reasonable confidence that inflation is picking up... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) While the unemployment rate edged down in May, the underutilisation rate held steady suggesting that there is still plenty of slack in the labour market. And in his speech yesterday, Governor Philip... 14th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Is a financial crisis looming? The most likely consequence of the rapid build-up of household debt over the past decade is a number of years of softer GDP growth and lower interest rates than widely expected. But the risk of a more... 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jun.) While the modest rise in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in June is encouraging, we remain cautious about the outlook for consumption growth. 13th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Relying again on resources In order to grow by 3.1% in the year to the first quarter, the Australian economy returned to the old habit of relying on resources. This won’t be possible in the second quarter nor in the coming... 8th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr.) After having been a big factor behind the strong rise in GDP in the first quarter, April’s international trade data suggest that net exports won’t be as supportive in the second quarter. So just one... 7th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) Australia stands out as one of the few advanced economies that strengthened at the start of the year. But with households struggling even before the Royal Commission has prompted tighter credit... 6th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA not that worried by Royal Commission While leaving interest rates at the record low of 1.5% again today, the Reserve Bank of Australia hinted that it is not too worried about the economic implications of the Royal Commission... 5th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Apr.) After stalling in March, the stronger than anticipated rise in retail sales in April was welcome news. Nevertheless, with household budgets still under pressure, we continue to expect consumption... 4th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How much support will non-mining investment provide? While the outlook for non-mining business investment in Australia is fairly encouraging, we aren’t expecting an appreciable pick-up in total private investment growth. That’s largely because the... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (May) House prices fell at a faster rate in May and the recent slump in the number of properties sold relative to the number listed suggests that prices may soon be falling by about 5% a year. And that’s... 1st June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q1) While the headline figures in the first-quarter private capital expenditure survey were only a little weaker than most had anticipated, the news on non-mining investment was particularly disappointing... 31st May 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Royal Commission contributes to RBA inactivity The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly keep interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 5 th June and with the outlook for inflation subdued and the Royal Commission... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A $100 oil price would not be a disaster We still believe that the oil price is more likely to fall from US$80 per barrel to US$65 rather than rise to US$100 as some have suggested. But even if it did hit US$100, inflation in Australia... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Royal Commission presents a risk to growth While there is still a lot of uncertainty, it seems likely that the Royal Commission into misconduct in the financial sector will lead to a tightening in credit conditions in Australia. A notable... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where to look for tighter credit conditions Credit conditions in Australia will surely tighten further as a result of the Royal Commission investigation into misconduct in the financial sector, but there is a huge amount of uncertainty about... 18th May 2018 · 1 min read
