Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stronger growth failing to boost inflation The fall in underlying inflation in the second quarter in Australia revealed this week has made us more confident in our non-consensus call that underlying inflation will stay below the RBA’s 2-3%... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q2) The rise in headline inflation to back within the RBA’s 2-3% target range for only the first time in 15 months was only possible because of a leap in petrol prices. There is hardly any price pressure... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The strong labour market and the cautious RBA The financial markets are probably right to assume that the release of June’s bumper labour market figures has increased the chances that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates a bit... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) The labour market is improving quicker than the RBA expected, but it is probably the case that the unemployment rate would have to fall below 5.0%, other measures of spare capacity would have to... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too early to sound all-clear on credit conditions Housing finance commitments have started to edge up again and suggest that house prices won’t fall much further for now. Households are taking the weaker housing market in their stride and APRA... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Scope for the participation rate to rise further While the aging of the population will continue to exert a sizeable downward influence on the participation rate in the coming years, this will probably be more than offset by further rises in the... 9th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Policymakers, housing and households As well as fretting about the rise in global trade barriers, policymakers in Australia are also becoming more worried about housing. And rightly so. After all, some of the most reliable leading... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Petrol prices eat into tax and minimum wage windfall A large chunk of the boost to consumption from the income tax cuts and the rise in the minimum wage, both of which came into effect on 1st July, is being offset by the leap in petrol prices. Moreover... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (May) It looks as though a rebound in consumption growth will broadly offset a weakening in the external sector in the second quarter to keep the Australian economy cruising along nicely in the second... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s global and housing concerns grow Growing concerns about the global trade dispute and the deepening domestic housing downturn mean that the Reserve Bank of Australia will probably leave interest rates at 1.5%, as it did at today’s... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) The Reserve Bank of Australia probably isn’t too concerned by the further small fall in house prices in June. But the clear risk is that rising mortgage rates and tighter credit conditions prompt... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA, funding costs and mortgage rates The recent rebound in short-term funding costs is not big enough to prompt all banks to raise their mortgages rates by more than a few basis points. But the risk that funding costs rise further is one... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Aussie and kiwi dollars may depreciate further The Australian and New Zealand dollars have weakened to US$0.74 and US$0.68 respectively as rising trade tensions between the US and China have reduced the appetite for riskier currencies. Looking... 27th June 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch A wilting desire to raise interest rates An apparent wilting desire to raise interest rates means that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rates at 1.5% at the policy meeting on Tuesday 3rd July and probably won’t raise rates... 26th June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade war, the dollar and the RBA The combination of the escalation in global trade tensions and some dovish developments at home have dragged down the Australian dollar to a one-year low of US$0.74. We suspect it will weaken further... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The possible spillovers from the US-China trade spat The escalating trade spat between the US and China could potentially boost the Australian economy in the near-term. But any reduction in global trade would be bad news for Australia in the long-term... 20th June 2018 · 1 min read
