Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Further falls in dwellings investment lie ahead While the recent rises in building approvals are encouraging, we doubt they are a sign that the drag on GDP growth from dwellings investment is already over. Indeed, we expect that dwellings... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia ABS House Prices (Q4) The 1.0% q/q rise in ABS house prices in the fourth quarter overstates the health of the market at the end of last year and the more up-to-date CoreLogic data show that prices stagnated in the first... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An escalation of trade tariffs poses a big threat You could argue that an escalation of global trade tariffs could actually benefit Australia and New Zealand in the near-term if it caused their currencies to weaken and led China to stimulate its own... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Mar.) While the modest rise in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in March was a welcome sight following January’s weaker than expected retail sales figures, we remain cautious about the outlook for... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Life after the booms The economy will probably cope reasonably well even though both the mining and housing booms are over, but over the next couple of years it is unlikely to strengthen as much as policymakers hope. Over... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why aren’t Australians working harder? The slump in the annual rate of productivity growth to a 22-year low of -1.0% in the fourth quarter suggests that Australian’s aren’t working very hard and that this will damage their prosperity in... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The rebound in the trade balance from a deficit of $1.14bn in December to a surplus of $1.06bn in January is welcome news, though it may be too early to conclude that net exports will substantially... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4) The most encouraging aspect of the fourth-quarter GDP release was the acceleration in the various measures of income growth. Even so, we suspect that still-subdued income growth and a soft housing... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA repeats that progress on inflation will be gradual The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold at 1.5% for the 17 th consecutive meeting and it noted once again that progress in returning inflation to target is likely to be “gradual”... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan.) & GDP Partials (Q4) Today’s data releases suggest that GDP growth was a touch stronger than we had expected in the fourth quarter of last year. That said, the smaller than anticipated rise in retail sales in January... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly There goes Australia’s interest rate premium Our relative views on monetary policy in the US and Australia suggest that US 10-year bond yields will rise further above Australian yields this year. While this would be rare, what’s more unusual is... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q4) The private capital expenditure survey for the fourth quarter was a bit weaker than widely expected, but the key point is that investment is no longer the Achilles heel of the economy as firms are... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A marked divergence in the fortunes of businesses While rising profits and confidence are boosting sentiment amongst Australian businesses, the uncertainty surrounding the policies of the new government has continued to weigh on business confidence... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lowe’s “gradual” signal on progress towards rate hikes The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 6 th March and it will probably continue to signal that there is no risk of a... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the interest-only loan market nearing a precipice? There has been a renewed focus in recent weeks on interest-only loans in Australia and the potential risk that these loans present to financial stability, particularly given a large portion of... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Has the natural rate of unemployment fallen? The unemployment rate may need to fall from 5.5% currently to around 4.0% before wage growth rises significantly. This is partly due to the existing excess capacity not captured by the unemployment... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
