Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Sep. & Q3) The fact that real retail were broadly stable in the third quarter even though retailers offered more discounts than usual shows just how unwilling households are to take their wallets out of their... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Sep.) The rises in the international trade surplus and the number of building approvals in September are both encouraging signs as they highlight the growing importance of services exports and the recent... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Questioning the case for higher interest rates We think the financial markets are right to pare back their expectations of how far interest rates will rise next year. Admittedly, we expect that after leaving rates at 1.5% at the meeting on Tuesday... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Retail sector on the ropes Despite the sustained strengthening in the Australian labour market, retail sales have been unusually weak in recent months. Admittedly, some of this weakness can be explained by weak price pressures... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Challenging the tightening trend Australia and New Zealand will probably stand out from the crowd next year as interest rates stay at their respective record lows of 1.50% and 1.75% while rates are raised in some other advanced... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Market forces still aren’t boosting inflation Australia’s third-quarter inflation data highlighted that inflation is highest for the items where prices are influenced by government decisions and inflation is lowest for the items where prices are... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3) The surge in electricity and gas prices in the third quarter will garner a lot of attention, but the drop back in the headline inflation rate from 1.9% to 1.8% underlines that price pressures remain... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What is the true rate of inflation? Although much attention will fall on the release of the third-quarter Australian inflation figures next week, the reweighting of the CPI basket in the fourth-quarter will be more significant as it... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The larger than expected rise in employment in September marks the seventh consecutive month of strong job gains in Australia and leaves little doubt about the current health of the labour market... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How big will the rebound in business investment be? While we are becoming more optimistic on the outlook for non-mining business investment in Australia following years of disappointing growth, we doubt the pick-up will be as strong as business surveys... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus When will interest rates rise? We believe the financial markets have gone too far by pricing in a strong possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates twice next year, from 1.5% to 2.0%. Economic... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The Westpac measure of consumer confidence leapt to its highest level in a year in October, which was a welcome sight given the recent run of weak data on household spending. That said, we remain... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Strong jobs growth isn’t a silver bullet for households The sizeable pick-up in employment growth in recent months presents an upside risk to our forecast that consumption growth will slow notably this year. But in light of the other headwinds restraining... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Retail weakness a worry, but not a disaster The recent slump in retail sales in Australia suggests that the slowdown in consumption growth that we have been warning about is underway. But it’s not a disaster for the economy as an associated... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (Aug.) The net result of the retail sales and international trade data for August isn’t a disaster for the overall economy. But the weakness in retail sales supports our long-held view that a slowdown in... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA becoming more confident in the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia may have left interest rates at 1.5% for the 14th month today, but its growing confidence in the outlook for activity and inflation may mean it will be prepared to signal... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
