Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How will New Zealand’s election affect its economy? The general election in New Zealand could have a bigger influence on the economy than seemed possible a few weeks ago. If National needs the support of NZ First to form a majority government then the... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Bouncing back It looks as though both Australia and New Zealand shook off the weakness at the start of the year as GDP growth may have bounced back in the second quarter. We estimate that the disappointing 0.3% q/q... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where’s the cyclical rise in wage growth? If a cyclical rise in wage growth in Australia was underway, it would show up first in the strongest states and sectors. But wage growth hasn’t risen in New South Wales and Victoria. What’s more... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jul.) The recent run of chunky rises in employment is helping to cushion the blow to households’ finances from record low wage growth. The past volatility of the data suggests it’s wise not to get too... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2) The stagnation in wage growth at the record low of 1.9% in the second quarter supports our view that the low wage, low inflation climate will mean the RBA won’t raise interest rates next year as the... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus The new long-term inflation trend History may be turned on its head over the next decade with Australia and New Zealand experiencing lower inflation rates than some of their peers. It follows that their exchange rates may be weaker... 15th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Business bonanza? The surge in business confidence in Australia has made us a little more upbeat on the outlook for business investment. But with households showing some signs of struggling, a bit more investment won’t... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The fall in consumer confidence to a 16-month low in August widens the disparity between glum households and gleeful businesses. With confidence at a level consistent with a slowdown in consumption... 9th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook A new phase The Australian economy is entering a new phase where the drag on GDP growth from mining investment is coming to an end, but the boosts to growth from dwellings investment and consumption are starting... 7th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Monetary policy will become more boring The financial markets need to wake up to the fact that there is going to be fewer interest rate changes than in the past and more policy inertia. This is very much a global development, but the trend... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA hoping to hit its inflation target sooner The Reserve Bank of Australia’s new forecasts infer that it doesn’t think a dollar of US$0.80 will knock the economy off course. In fact, its new forecast that underlying inflation will rise to the 2... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The fall in the trade surplus from a record high of $4.6bn in December to just $0.9bn in June is not a disaster as a lot of it is due to lower prices rather than lower export volumes. But the recent... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Dollar may still fall despite RBA’s reluctance to talk it down Even though the Reserve Bank of Australia today decided not to try and talk the dollar down after it left interest rates at 1.5%, we still think the dollar will eventually weaken from US$0.80 now to... 1st August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Jobs growth switches from soft to soaring After a soft patch at the beginning of this year, jobs growth has soared in Australia in recent months. What’s more, of the net new 154,000 jobs that have been created since March all of them have... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is inflation really just 1.9%? Most people are right to believe that their inflation rate is not 1.9% as the official ABS data show. As different people spend different shares of their income on different items than the ABS assumes... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Not ready to become hawkish The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly keep interest rates on hold at 1.5% when it meets next Tuesday 1 st August, and we expect it to retain its fairly upbeat view on the outlook for the... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
