Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (May) The much stronger than anticipated rise in employment in May and the fall in the unemployment rate to a four-year low will go some way to quashing growing talk of the chance of another interest rate... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand GDP (Q1) The weaker-than-expected rise in GDP in the first quarter means that GDP growth this year is likely to be closer to 3.0% than our previous forecast of 3.5%. While that would still be a fairly decent... 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The further fall in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in June to its lowest level since April 2016 will add to growing concerns about the outlook for consumer spending. On past form... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households getting a smaller share of the pie The share of the national income going to Australian households is at an eight-year low and is within a whisker of a 50-year low. What’s more, households in Australia currently get a smaller share of... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Apr.) The plunge in the international trade surplus to a six-month low of $0.6bn in April won’t last long as it was almost entirely due to the fall in coal exports caused by Cyclone Debbie, most of which... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Reports of a new GDP record are fake news Contrary to what you may have heard, the rise in GDP in the first quarter does not mean that Australia now holds the record for the longest period in modern history without a recession. It’s true that... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q1) The small 0.3% q/q rise in GDP in the first quarter won’t worry the RBA too much as some of it was due to the temporary influence of the severe weather. Nonetheless, we believe that GDP growth will be... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA willing to ignore the weak economy Even though the economy may have contracted in the first quarter, the Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates at 1.5% today and retained its optimistic view on the economic outlook. We suspect... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Further slowdown in consumption growth ahead There is growing evidence that the household sector has begun to falter and, given the worryingly weak outlook for income growth, the situation is unlikely to turnaround any time soon. Indeed, we... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Don’t panic about housing…at least not yet Most of the recent gloomy headlines on Australia’s housing market are simply because people are mistaking the normal soft patch after the Easter school holidays for something more worrying. When you... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q1) & Retail Sales (Apr.) The private capital expenditure survey for the first quarter showed that mining investment is becoming a smaller drag on GDP growth, while the leap in retail sales in April overstates the health of... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Rate hikes remain off the agenda While there is growing evidence that consumption growth has begun to falter, this won’t be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates from 1.5% when it meets on Tuesday... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A year of two halves The latest evidence suggests that the Australian economy entered a soft patch in the first half of the year, with the quarterly rate of GDP growth perhaps averaging only 0.3%. As some of this weakness... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The shifting shape of economic growth The economy appears to be in a new phase where mining investment is no longer as big a drag on growth but net exports, consumption and dwellings investment are providing less support. The risk is that... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Household sector is starting to falter There is growing evidence that the household sector in Australia is beginning to struggle as subdued income growth weighs on spending. The sharp slowdown in the growth of retail sales volumes in the... 24th May 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Better get used to slow wage growth Wage growth in Australia has only been significantly lower than it is now during the Great Depression and immediately after World War II. While we do expect wage growth to rise from here, it won’t... 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
