Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jun./Q2) Households appear to be coping well with the hit to their real spending power from rising petrol prices and the hit to their net wealth from falling house prices. But with house prices starting to... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The recent fall in the Australian dollar may mean that over the next year the external sector will give the economy a bigger helping hand. But in the second quarter, it looks as though net exports... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) The acceleration in the housing downturn in July should make the RBA and some other analysts sit up and take notice. What’s more, the worst is yet to come. Our relatively bearish forecast that prices... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Another year of inaction ahead The combined message from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy announcement on Tuesday 7 th August and the publication of the Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday 10 th will probably be that even... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Life without the booms The end of Australia’s housing boom and New Zealand’s migration boom mean that economic growth in both countries will probably fall short of expectations over the next couple of years. Australia may... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stronger growth failing to boost inflation The fall in underlying inflation in the second quarter in Australia revealed this week has made us more confident in our non-consensus call that underlying inflation will stay below the RBA’s 2-3%... 27th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q2) The rise in headline inflation to back within the RBA’s 2-3% target range for only the first time in 15 months was only possible because of a leap in petrol prices. There is hardly any price pressure... 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The strong labour market and the cautious RBA The financial markets are probably right to assume that the release of June’s bumper labour market figures has increased the chances that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates a bit... 20th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) The labour market is improving quicker than the RBA expected, but it is probably the case that the unemployment rate would have to fall below 5.0%, other measures of spare capacity would have to... 19th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Too early to sound all-clear on credit conditions Housing finance commitments have started to edge up again and suggest that house prices won’t fall much further for now. Households are taking the weaker housing market in their stride and APRA... 13th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Scope for the participation rate to rise further While the aging of the population will continue to exert a sizeable downward influence on the participation rate in the coming years, this will probably be more than offset by further rises in the... 9th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Policymakers, housing and households As well as fretting about the rise in global trade barriers, policymakers in Australia are also becoming more worried about housing. And rightly so. After all, some of the most reliable leading... 6th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Petrol prices eat into tax and minimum wage windfall A large chunk of the boost to consumption from the income tax cuts and the rise in the minimum wage, both of which came into effect on 1st July, is being offset by the leap in petrol prices. Moreover... 5th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (May) It looks as though a rebound in consumption growth will broadly offset a weakening in the external sector in the second quarter to keep the Australian economy cruising along nicely in the second... 4th July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA’s global and housing concerns grow Growing concerns about the global trade dispute and the deepening domestic housing downturn mean that the Reserve Bank of Australia will probably leave interest rates at 1.5%, as it did at today’s... 3rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) The Reserve Bank of Australia probably isn’t too concerned by the further small fall in house prices in June. But the clear risk is that rising mortgage rates and tighter credit conditions prompt... 2nd July 2018 · 1 min read
