Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Apr.) House price inflation fell below zero in April for the first time since 2012 and with demand probably only going to be more constrained by lending conditions, we suspect that it will fall further into... 1st May 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Struggling to reach potential A weakening housing market and the high level of household debt will probably prevent GDP growth in Australia from accelerating above 2.5% in the coming years, while the end of the migration boom may... 30th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly APRA, the Royal Commission and housing We suspect that a tightening in lending standards as a result of the Royal Commission into banking misconduct will more than offset any further relaxation in APRA’s lending restrictions to leave... 27th April 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Growing less optimistic Despite underlying inflation coming in slightly stronger than the Reserve Bank of Australia expected in the first quarter, the RBA will almost certainly leave interest rates at 1.5% at its next policy... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1) Even though in the first quarter underlying inflation essentially rose back within the RBA’s 2-3% target range for the first time in two years, we doubt this means that the RBA will raise interest... 24th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Low inflation continues to haunt New Zealand Looking past the temporary dip in inflation in the first quarter, which was partly driven by government decisions, there have been some encouraging signs about the outlook for inflation in New Zealand... 20th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Mar.) While the modest increase in employment in March was a notable break from the exceptionally large rises recorded over the past year, we are wary about sounding the alarm just yet given most leading... 19th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA facing up to reality The Reserve Bank of Australia’s apparent downward revision to its previously published 3.0% GDP growth forecast for 2018 shows once again that the RBA has been too hopeful. We suspect it will also... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Households remained fairly optimistic in April, despite the escalation in trade tensions between the US and China, with the Westpac measure of consumer confidence remaining above average for the fifth... 11th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What next for house prices? The recent fall in the demand for housing relative to the supply is consistent with house prices continuing to decline in the coming months. While prices may only edge lower this year and next, higher... 10th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Funding spike won’t push up mortgage rates much The recent rise in banks’ short-term funding costs would probably need to triple before banks could justify raising their mortgage rates by 0.25%, which would be equivalent to a hike in the official... 9th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Household spending to lose momentum There have been some encouraging data on the health of consumer spending in Australia recently, and with the labour market remaining strong and consumer confidence relatively high there are certainly... 6th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Feb.) As Australia is more exposed than most other advanced economies to a further escalation of trade tensions between the US and China, the fall in its international trade surplus in February is... 5th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & Building Approvals (Feb.) While February’s retail sales and building approvals data sent mixed signals on the health of the overall economy, it is most likely that both consumption and dwellings investment will be weaker than... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Global events may keep the RBA on hold for longer The Reserve Bank of Australia has become more worried about trade tariffs and rising global bank funding costs. Coming on top of the weakness of the housing market and wage growth, it is becoming even... 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Corporate tax cuts wouldn’t boost the economy much The Australian government’s plan to cut the corporate tax rate from 30% to 25% by 2026/27 wouldn’t be a boon for the economy for two reasons. First, the tax rate would need to be cut much further to... 29th March 2018 · 1 min read
