Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Private Capital Expenditure Survey (Q4) The private capital expenditure survey for the fourth quarter was a bit weaker than widely expected, but the key point is that investment is no longer the Achilles heel of the economy as firms are... 1st March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A marked divergence in the fortunes of businesses While rising profits and confidence are boosting sentiment amongst Australian businesses, the uncertainty surrounding the policies of the new government has continued to weigh on business confidence... 28th February 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lowe’s “gradual” signal on progress towards rate hikes The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 6 th March and it will probably continue to signal that there is no risk of a... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the interest-only loan market nearing a precipice? There has been a renewed focus in recent weeks on interest-only loans in Australia and the potential risk that these loans present to financial stability, particularly given a large portion of... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Has the natural rate of unemployment fallen? The unemployment rate may need to fall from 5.5% currently to around 4.0% before wage growth rises significantly. This is partly due to the existing excess capacity not captured by the unemployment... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q4) The rise in wage growth in the fourth quarter may be the first real sign that wages are benefiting from the recent strength of jobs growth. But real wages have been stagnant for two years. And the... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Will policymakers help housing? Recent suggestions by the Australian Treasurer that APRA could ease its current restrictions on mortgage lending seem to be motivated more by politics than financial stability. With the RBA and APRA... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) The labour market started 2018 just as it ended 2017, with employment continuing to climb at a healthy clip. But the fall in hours worked to a record low will offset some of the boost to household... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An oasis of record low interest rates If global equity markets are fearing higher interest rates, as this week’s fall suggest, then Australia and New Zealand offer something of an oasis as both the RBA and RBNZ dropped some heavy hints... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA hints that rates won’t rise this year The Reserve Bank of Australia used today’s Statement of Monetary Policy to hint for the third time this week that interest rates are unlikely to rise this year. We’ve been saying exactly that since... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA hints it’s in no rush to raise rates The jitters in the financial markets are due to concerns that global interest rates will rise rapidly, but the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did its part to calm fears by leaving interest rates at... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Dec.) The fall in retail sales and the deterioration in the international trade balance in December probably won’t ease the current jitters in the financial markets, but the figures aren’t as bad as they... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Slicing and dicing inflation Whichever way you look at it, there is very little evidence that the health of the economy is starting to boost inflation in Australia. Out of our six key charts that take a deep dive into the latest... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Another year of record low rates Despite the strengthening of the activity data, the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t raise interest rates from 1.5% at the meeting on Tuesday 6th February and probably won’t hint in the following... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q4) It is possible that price pressures are a little stronger than the CPI data for the fourth quarter suggest. But the main message is that inflation is still hovering just below the 2-3% target and it... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook No rush to raise rates 2018 will be the first year this century that the Australian economy won’t benefit from either a mining or housing boom. In those circumstances, we doubt that GDP growth will rise above 2.5%. And... 28th January 2018 · 1 min read
