Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A state of convergence Over the next few years we expect that the relative performance of the largest states in Australia will converge, as the mining-exposed states of Queensland and Western Australia benefit most from the... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA admits it will miss its inflation target for two more years The Reserve Bank of Australia admitted in today’s Statement on Monetary Policy that underlying inflation will be below its 2-3% target for a year longer than it previously thought. We have been saying... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA too complacent on households and inflation Although the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left interest rates at 1.5% for the 15 th month today, we don’t think it is placing enough weight on the recent weakening in retail sales and softer news... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New CPI weights mean sub-2% inflation lasts longer The new CPI spending weights suggest that inflation will be 0.2 percentage points lower than otherwise over the next two years and therefore support our view that underlying inflation will stay below... 6th November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Housing and the economy The stagnation in house prices in Australia in recent months is a big deal as it means housing won’t support the economy by as much as in recent years. The plunge in the number of home sales will... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Sep. & Q3) The fact that real retail were broadly stable in the third quarter even though retailers offered more discounts than usual shows just how unwilling households are to take their wallets out of their... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia International Trade (Sep.) The rises in the international trade surplus and the number of building approvals in September are both encouraging signs as they highlight the growing importance of services exports and the recent... 2nd November 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Questioning the case for higher interest rates We think the financial markets are right to pare back their expectations of how far interest rates will rise next year. Admittedly, we expect that after leaving rates at 1.5% at the meeting on Tuesday... 1st November 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Retail sector on the ropes Despite the sustained strengthening in the Australian labour market, retail sales have been unusually weak in recent months. Admittedly, some of this weakness can be explained by weak price pressures... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Challenging the tightening trend Australia and New Zealand will probably stand out from the crowd next year as interest rates stay at their respective record lows of 1.50% and 1.75% while rates are raised in some other advanced... 30th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Market forces still aren’t boosting inflation Australia’s third-quarter inflation data highlighted that inflation is highest for the items where prices are influenced by government decisions and inflation is lowest for the items where prices are... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q3) The surge in electricity and gas prices in the third quarter will garner a lot of attention, but the drop back in the headline inflation rate from 1.9% to 1.8% underlines that price pressures remain... 25th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What is the true rate of inflation? Although much attention will fall on the release of the third-quarter Australian inflation figures next week, the reweighting of the CPI basket in the fourth-quarter will be more significant as it... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The larger than expected rise in employment in September marks the seventh consecutive month of strong job gains in Australia and leaves little doubt about the current health of the labour market... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How big will the rebound in business investment be? While we are becoming more optimistic on the outlook for non-mining business investment in Australia following years of disappointing growth, we doubt the pick-up will be as strong as business surveys... 13th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus When will interest rates rise? We believe the financial markets have gone too far by pricing in a strong possibility that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates twice next year, from 1.5% to 2.0%. Economic... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
