RBA Watch Mixed inflation figures won’t prevent cut to 1.50% While the second-quarter inflation figures were somewhat mixed, we still expect that the most likely outcome at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting on Tuesday 2nd August is an interest rate... 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q2) The CPI inflation data for the second quarter makes next Tuesday’s RBA policy meeting a closer call than had looked likely, but we still think the RBA will pull the trigger and cut interest rates to 1... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Two things the RBA could learn from the RBNZ The recent experience of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand provides two lessons for the Reserve Bank of Australia. First, don’t dither when it comes to making decisions otherwise you’ll be punished by a... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Shrugging off global and domestic uncertainty The early evidence suggests that businesses and households in Australia have not been ruffled by the UK’s vote to leave the EU and Australia’s close Federal election result. Admittedly, consumer... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The part-time problem Most of the rise in the share of people working part-time is due to long-term factors that have improved the flexibility of Australia’s labour market. However, some of it is due to weak economic... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jun.) Although the labour market is probably a bit weaker than June’s figures suggest, we’re not too concerned when the forward-looking indicators remain healthy. That said, the high share of part-time... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Jul.) Much like financial markets and businesses, the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in July suggests that households have been largely unaffected by the significant political uncertainty... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why the AAA credit rating doesn’t matter While we doubt that the loss of Australia’s AAA credit rating would be followed by a rise in borrowing costs for the government, states and banks, it would nonetheless highlight that the burden to... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Loss of AAA rating wouldn't raise borrowing costs S&P’s decision to revise Australia’s AAA credit rating from stable to negative is another political blow for the Coalition, but it doesn’t mean much for the financial markets, the States or the banks 7th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA not too worried by political uncertainty By leaving interest rates at 1.75% and not providing a very strong hint that they will be cut in August, the Reserve Bank of Australia today implied that the recent financial market volatility and... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales & International Trade (May) Weaker-than-expected retail sales and international trade figures for May provide further evidence that GDP growth probably slowed sharply in the second quarter. This won’t be enough to persuade the... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does the election mean for the economy and markets? The fallout on the economy and financial markets from the uncertain outcome of the Federal election will probably be relatively mild and short-lived and is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of... 4th July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households can cope with lower wealth Although the recent poor performance of equity prices means that household wealth may decline in the first half of the year, we doubt this will significantly restrain consumption growth. Households... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus A new era of very low inflation The unusually low rates of underlying inflation in both Australia and New Zealand will remain a thorn in the side of policymakers for a number of years yet. This explains why we believe that the... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Brexit volatility won't prompt July rate cut The recent volatility in global financial markets triggered by the UK’s vote to leave the EU is unlikely to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates from 1.75% to 1.50% at its... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Brexit not a major threat Last week’s vote by the UK to leave the EU isn’t a major threat to the Australian and New Zealand economies, especially when the resulting volatility in the financial markets appears to be fading. 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
