Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Bounce back in activity unlikely Both the Australian and New Zealand economies failed to regain any momentum at the end of 2017 with GDP rising by a slower than expected 0.6% q/q in New Zealand and just 0.4% q/q in Australia... 28th March 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch What could prompt a rate rise in 2018? The Reserve Bank of Australia will almost certainly leave interest rates on hold at 1.5% at its policy meeting on Tuesday 3rd April and it’s likely to reiterate that rate hikes remain some way off by... 27th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Record run of job growth won’t be sustained Following a surprisingly strong 2017, the Australian labour market has started 2018 on a firm footing and business surveys suggest that employment growth will continue to climb in the coming months... 23rd March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Feb.) Australia does not have a problem creating jobs, as employment continued to grow at its fastest rate in a decade in February. But there is still a lot of slack in the market that will need to be used... 22nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fed leapfrogs the RBA and RBNZ We believe the probable rise in US rates on Wednesday will mark the start of the first prolonged period since the late 1990s where interest rates in America are higher than in Australia and New... 21st March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Further falls in dwellings investment lie ahead While the recent rises in building approvals are encouraging, we doubt they are a sign that the drag on GDP growth from dwellings investment is already over. Indeed, we expect that dwellings... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia ABS House Prices (Q4) The 1.0% q/q rise in ABS house prices in the fourth quarter overstates the health of the market at the end of last year and the more up-to-date CoreLogic data show that prices stagnated in the first... 20th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An escalation of trade tariffs poses a big threat You could argue that an escalation of global trade tariffs could actually benefit Australia and New Zealand in the near-term if it caused their currencies to weaken and led China to stimulate its own... 16th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Consumer Confidence (Mar.) While the modest rise in the Westpac measure of consumer confidence in March was a welcome sight following January’s weaker than expected retail sales figures, we remain cautious about the outlook for... 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Life after the booms The economy will probably cope reasonably well even though both the mining and housing booms are over, but over the next couple of years it is unlikely to strengthen as much as policymakers hope. Over... 12th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why aren’t Australians working harder? The slump in the annual rate of productivity growth to a 22-year low of -1.0% in the fourth quarter suggests that Australian’s aren’t working very hard and that this will damage their prosperity in... 9th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The rebound in the trade balance from a deficit of $1.14bn in December to a surplus of $1.06bn in January is welcome news, though it may be too early to conclude that net exports will substantially... 8th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia GDP (Q4) The most encouraging aspect of the fourth-quarter GDP release was the acceleration in the various measures of income growth. Even so, we suspect that still-subdued income growth and a soft housing... 7th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA repeats that progress on inflation will be gradual The Reserve Bank of Australia left interest rates on hold at 1.5% for the 17 th consecutive meeting and it noted once again that progress in returning inflation to target is likely to be “gradual”... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Retail Sales (Jan.) & GDP Partials (Q4) Today’s data releases suggest that GDP growth was a touch stronger than we had expected in the fourth quarter of last year. That said, the smaller than anticipated rise in retail sales in January... 6th March 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly There goes Australia’s interest rate premium Our relative views on monetary policy in the US and Australia suggest that US 10-year bond yields will rise further above Australian yields this year. While this would be rare, what’s more unusual is... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
