Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Monetary policy and inflation targets The RBA left rates on hold this week while the RBNZ cut. That’s odd as the case for a rate cut looks much stronger in Australia. In any case, we think that rates will need to fall in Australia as well... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA set to be disappointed by the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) sounded a little more upbeat than the statement issued after the Bank kept rates on hold on Tuesday. We still think that the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Strong credit growth no reason to cheer Strong business credit growth could be a sign that firms are becoming more upbeat about the outlook for business investment. In reality though, the data tend to lag actual investment spending and we... 9th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA still likely to cut before long The Reserve Bank of Australia made only the slightest downward revisions to its forecasts when it left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today. But it noted that further improvements in the labour... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales & International Trade (Mar./Q1) Subdued growth in real retail sales in Q1 means consumption growth may have eased from the end of 2018. Meanwhile falling import volumes probably meant that net trade made a solid contribution to GDP... 7th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus What does slower growth in China mean for Australia? China’s slower housing and infrastructure investment growth will weigh on demand for iron ore and metallurgical coal. Further increases in services exports are unlikely to offset that drag. The coming... 6th May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Pace of house price declines may be letting up The pace of house price declines has eased in recent months and forward indicators suggest there may be a further slowdown ahead. However, we still expect houses prices to fall by 15% from their peak... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Interest rates set to fall The economic outlook has deteriorated in both Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, the downturn in the housing market and falling business confidence should mean that GDP growth will continue to... 30th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What would a Labor victory mean for Australia? Labor has pledged sizeable tax hikes that probably won’t be offset by higher expenditure, which means that fiscal policy will almost certainly be tighter in Australia under a Labor government than... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update What does a Labor victory mean for Australia? Labor has pledged sizeable tax hikes that probably won’t be offset by higher expenditure, which means that fiscal policy will almost certainly be tighter under a Labor government than under the... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Slump in inflation to prompt cut to 1.25% We suspect that the sharp fall in underlying inflation in the first quarter will be enough to prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates to 1.25% on Tuesday 7th May. And given... 29th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly History suggests the RBA will cut rates in May The easing in underlying inflation this week prompted a sharp decline in market interest rate expectations. That makes sense because an equally weak inflation print prompted the RBA to cut interest... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Consumer Prices (Q1) The softening in underlying inflation puts increasing pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates. We still expect the RBA to cut rates in August but the risks of an earlier cut have increased. 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Why two cuts may not be enough As the economic outlook has softened the RBA is inching closer to a rate cut. The analyst consensus has now come around to our view and foresees two 25bp cuts by early next year. But we think that the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Mar.) The solid employment gain in March doesn’t resolve the tension between weak activity and healthy labour market data. Our view is that the drag from the housing downturn will eventually win the upper... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Trade frictions not a major risk to economy China announced this week that its anti-dumping investigation into Australian barley imports will drag on longer than planned, fuelling tensions between the two countries further. While China’s small... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
