Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Drought won’t dent the economy much The recent drought is hurting many farmers, their communities and the agricultural sector. But it is unlikely to put a big dent in the output of the whole economy or significantly raise CPI inflation. 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The dollar, wages and the inflation target The weakening in the Australian dollar to a 19-month low will provide a small boost to CPI inflation, but it won’t solve Australia’s persistent problem of low wage growth. While lowering the RBA’s... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jul.) The surprise decline in employment July isn’t a big concern as other evidence suggests the economy has not stalled. But even if the labour market were to shift back into top gear in the coming months... 16th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q2) We suspect that the continued stagnation in real wages in the second quarter will contribute to an easing in consumption growth this year, while the absence of a meaningful rise in nominal wage growth... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The tide may turn in favour of the dollar next year Even though both the Australian and New Zealand dollars have weakened by more than 10% this year and have pretty much hit our end-year forecasts, the risks still lie on the downside. The tide may turn... 14th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Putting the housing downturn into context The fall in house prices seen so far is small by the standards of the average Australian downturn. But a further tightening in credit criteria may contribute to it morphing into the deepest and... 13th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Divining in different directions The chances that interest rates in Australia will rise a bit earlier than we expect have grown this week while it has become more likely that interest rates in New Zealand will be unchanged for longer... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA paints a near-perfect picture of the economy The Reserve Bank of Australia’s new projections that the economy will be in an almost perfect state in 2020 suggest that the Bank is edging ever so slowly towards raising interest rates. Our view that... 10th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA sounds upbeat, but still a long way from hiking The Reserve Bank of Australia appeared a bit more upbeat on the outlook for the domestic economy while leaving interest rates at 1.5% for the 24 th month today, but it continued to hint that interest... 7th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update China’s tariffs may help LNG exports in the long-term Australia’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers are unlikely to benefit much from China’s proposal to impose a 25% tariff on LNG imports from the US simply because China doesn’t buy that much LNG... 6th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Lending, house prices and retail sales With the housing market slowdown in danger of morphing into the deepest and longest in Australia’s modern history, we doubt that the recent resilience of household spending will last. The risk is that... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jun./Q2) Households appear to be coping well with the hit to their real spending power from rising petrol prices and the hit to their net wealth from falling house prices. But with house prices starting to... 3rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The recent fall in the Australian dollar may mean that over the next year the external sector will give the economy a bigger helping hand. But in the second quarter, it looks as though net exports... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) The acceleration in the housing downturn in July should make the RBA and some other analysts sit up and take notice. What’s more, the worst is yet to come. Our relatively bearish forecast that prices... 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Another year of inaction ahead The combined message from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy announcement on Tuesday 7 th August and the publication of the Statement on Monetary Policy on Friday 10 th will probably be that even... 31st July 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Life without the booms The end of Australia’s housing boom and New Zealand’s migration boom mean that economic growth in both countries will probably fall short of expectations over the next couple of years. Australia may... 30th July 2018 · 1 min read
