Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jul.) The narrowing in the trade surplus in July was probably driven by a decline in export volumes so we doubt that net trade provided much of a boost to GDP growth in Q3. 5th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q2) The solid rise in GDP in the second quarter shows that Australia’s economy has come through the housing downturn with cuts and bruises but hasn’t faltered. Even so, we only expect a sluggish recovery. 4th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Interest rates still likely to fall further The RBA sounded a little more optimistic when it left interest rates unchanged at today’s meeting. But with external headwinds intensifying and the labour market set to weaken further, we still expect... 3rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) & GDP Partials (Q2) The weakness in retail sales isn’t too concerning as most households wouldn’t have received their tax refunds by the end of July. We therefore still expect that GDP growth bottomed out in Q2. However... 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australian dollar has further to fall At the start of the year, we were a lone voice forecasting that the Australian dollar would decline to US$0.65 by year-end. The Australian dollar has come under increasing pressure this month on a... 2nd September 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The 0.8% m/m rise in house prices in August means the housing market is now in full rebound. We expect prices to rise by 5% from their trough this year, and by 10% in 2020 supported by low interest... 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Current account surplus won’t last long RBA Deputy Governor Debelle argued this week that Australia’s net foreign liability position makes Australia less vulnerable than many believe because its net foreign assets tend to rise when the... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q2) The rebound in machinery and equipment investment won’t be enough to offset a slump in construction activity and private investment probably fell the most since 2016 in the second quarter. However... 29th August 2019 · 2 mins read
RBA Watch RBA not done yet The Reserve Bank of Australia hasn’t learned much on the state of the economy since its last meeting and we expect it to leave rates unchanged at its next meeting on Tuesday 3rd September. However, we... 27th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The money supply is not what it used to be Growth in the money supply has picked-up in Australia but we don’t think the money supply has much of a relationship with economic activity. Even so, banks have started to ease lending standards which... 26th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The sky isn’t falling There have been concerns that the recent inversion of the US yield curve foreshadows a global downturn but we think that the recent easing in lending standards means the probability of a recession in... 23rd August 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Should we be worried about rising loan losses? Loan losses have remained low throughout the housing downturn but we suspect that they will pick up soon, driven by higher write-offs on corporate loans. However, loan losses tend to lag changes in... 22nd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Current account won’t remain in surplus for long A lower cost of funding via foreign liabilities, a higher return on overseas assets and falling capital goods imports should all support Australia’s current account over the next couple of years... 20th August 2019 · 13 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for labour market remains challenging The recent weakness in economic activity should start to weigh on jobs growth before long, pushing up the unemployment rate further and resulting in weaker wage growth. While a softer labour market... 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jul.) The strong rise in employment in July failed to make any inroads into the pool of unemployed workers. Employment growth is set to falter, pushing up the unemployment rate further before long. 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Wage Price Index (Q2) Wage growth treaded water in the second quarter and the recent loosening of the labour market suggests it will fall to 2% before long. 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
