Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly US-China trade deal headwind to export growth The trade deal between the US and China may improve confidence in Australia helping end the drag from private investment. But prospects of a deal probably also contributed to the appreciation in the... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook RBA’s work not done yet Australia’s house prices may rise by 8% this year but consumers are still reeling under high debt loads. With growth set to fall short of potential, we still expect unemployment to rise further which... 16th January 2020 · 22 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Mortgage defaults may keep rising Banks’ housing lending standards remain tight. But this hasn’t prevented housing arrears from climbing to fresh highs as household balance sheets are stretched. And given that we expect the... 15th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Some good news for Q4 but 2020 still looks soft Trade and retail sales data for November both provided some reason to be optimistic about GDP growth in Q4. But looking past the positive headlines, we still think the outlook for domestic demand in... 10th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales (Nov.) The strongest rise in retail sales in two years could be a sign that tax refunds and interest rate cuts are finally boosting spending. But with consumer confidence falling to fresh lows, we doubt it... 10th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - International Trade (Nov.) The sharp rise in the trade balance in November is consistent with the contribution from net exports to GDP growth rising sharply in the fourth quarter but the weakness in imports suggests domestic... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Bushfires may reduce Q1 GDP by 0.1% The deadly bushfires that are ravaging Australia are first and foremost a human tragedy. But there are economic effects to consider, too. We suspect that the impact on consumption and working hours... 7th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Soaring house prices won’t prevent further easing Australia’s house prices rose the most in a decade last quarter and leading indicators suggest they will keep growing at an annual rate of more than 10%. However, there are no signs that households... 3rd January 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) With home sales climbing to a fresh high, our sales to listings ratio now suggests that house prices will soon be rising by around 10% per annum. 2nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Diverging fortunes Australia’s labour market is showing signs of stabilisation but GDP growth is set to fall short of the RBA’s expectations. As such, we still expect the RBA to cut interest rates at the upcoming... 20th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Unemployment rates will continue to rise in 2020 Annual GDP growth in Australia has probably bottomed out already but we expect growth to remain below potential in 2020. As such, jobs growth will probably not be strong enough to absorb the expansion... 19th December 2019 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Nov.) The renewed drop in the unemployment rate in November reduces the pressure on the RBA to cut interest rates but we still expect the labour market to soften further. 19th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Government remains reluctant to loosen fiscal policy Australia’s government pledged to increase spending in today’s Budget update. And its pessimistic forecasts for nominal GDP growth suggest that tax revenue may continue to surprise on the upside... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Stimulus failing to boost confidence Business confidence should pick up before long as the global economy has turned the corner. Even so, we expect GDP growth to fall short of its potential over the coming year, which underpins our... 13th December 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australian economy is not ‘back on track’ Australia’s economy may be past the worst but we still expect GDP growth to fall short of potential over the coming year. That means that unemployment will probably rise further, putting downward... 6th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Retail Sales & International Trade (Oct.) The stagnation in retail sales in October suggests that consumption growth remained sluggish in the fourth quarter. And while net exports should continue to support GDP growth, the weakness in... 5th December 2019 · 2 mins read
