Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Our new interest rate & Australian dollar forecasts Our new forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t raise interest rates from the record low of 1.5% until late in 2020 compares to the consensus view that lift-off will take place late next... 17th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Conditions for higher wages (slowly) falling into place This week the Australian economy took one more step towards meeting the conditions that would require higher interest rates, but it may be another 12-18 months at the least before the RBA has enough... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Aug.) The labour market is edging closer to the conditions that are necessary to trigger faster wage growth, but it may be another couple of years yet before it gets there. 13th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Boost to GDP from private investment unlikely to last The bulk of the recent leap in GDP growth has been driven by the behaviour of businesses, but firms probably won’t be able to support growth for long. An easing in private investment growth is one... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Surging GDP, stationary RBA The recent stellar performance of the Australian economy hasn’t made it much more likely that the RBA will raise interest rates sooner because it is businesses that are benefiting most not households... 7th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Jul.) It looks as though the contribution to real GDP growth in the third quarter from net exports will be similar to the 0.1 percentage point added in the second quarter. But the near-stagnation in imports... 6th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q2) The surge in GDP growth in the first half of the year meant that the Australian economy notched up 27 years without a recession in style. But with house prices falling, credit conditions tightening... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA glosses over weaker economic news The upbeat tone of the comments by the Reserve Bank of Australia after it left interest rates at the record low of 1.5% for the 25th month today is starting to grate more obviously with the incoming... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) It's become more likely that GDP growth in the second quarter was a bit stronger than we have been expecting, but the stagnation in retail sales values in July suggests that consumption may have lost... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) With the full effects of tighter credit conditions and rising mortgage rates yet to be felt, the current housing downturn will probably end up being the longest and deepest in Australia’s modern... 3rd September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Rising mortgage rates, housing and the RBA Australia is still a very long way from a recession or a financial crisis, but this week’s news that Westpac is hiking its mortgage rates has raised the risk a bit. After all, higher mortgage rates... 31st August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Private Capex Survey (Q2) & Building Approvals (Jul.) Just 18 months after it got going, the recovery in private investment appears to be running out of steam. This partly explains why we estimate that GDP in the second quarter may have risen by just 0.5... 30th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households holding up well Australian households have been more resilient to low income growth and falling house prices than we expected. After rising by just 0.3% q/q in the first quarter, the solid rises in retail sales in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Is the Governor warming to the idea of raising rates? Although the Reserve Bank of Australia will once again leave interest rates at 1.5% at the policy meeting on Tuesday 4th September, we sense that Governor Lowe has started to send some subtle signals... 28th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the dollar pondering a Labor government? This week’s political chaos has increased the downside risks to the Australian dollar. Although the markets welcomed the news that Scott Morrison has replaced Malcolm Turnbull as Australia’s Prime... 24th August 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Economy can cope with surge in political uncertainty As politicians don’t influence the economy by as much as they’d like to believe, the growing uncertainty over the Prime Minister’s position is unlikely to significantly dent activity. That said... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
