Labour market damage & renewed trade tensions

The unemployment rate is unlikely to remain as low as 6.2%, as it was in April. Many of those who left the labour force last month will probably start to look for a job as the economy reopens. Even so, we now expect the unemployment rate to peak at 9% instead of our previous forecast of 12%. Meanwhile, China is restricting imports of Australian barley and beef and could also restrain coal imports. But we doubt it will target the big ticket items such as iron ore and liquefied natural gas.