Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s dovish shift, euro heading for parity? ECB policymakers were out in force at the IMF meetings in Washington this week and many seemed willing to contemplate a 50bp rate cut in December. We now think that is the most likely decision and... 25th October 2024 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lending growth picking up only gradually New bank lending has risen recently as the interest rates on loans have begun to edge down, but it is still weak. While it will probably continue to increase gradually in the coming months, the ECB... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (October 2024) The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index in October still left it deep in recessionary territory. With growth in the rest of the euro-zone also weak, we now expect the ECB to cut its deposit rate by... 25th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Outlook for euro-zone equities brighter than for economy We think a pick-up in global growth and the further inflation of a US equity bubble mean prospects for euro-zone equities are generally promising, despite sluggish economic growth in the region. 24th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (October 2024) The low activity and price components of the flash PMIs for the euro-zone in October will strengthen the conviction of policymakers who think the ECB should step up the pace of rate cuts. We now think... 24th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s debt facing short term gain, long term pain We expect Spain’s public debt ratio to continue falling for the next three or four years, helping to support demand for Spanish government bonds. However, further ahead its debt-to-GDP ratio is likely... 23rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dutch EPC evidence highlights risk from stranded assets There is growing concern about how the green transition may create stranded real estate assets, impacting negatively on both lenders and investors. We can get some idea of the scale of the problem in... 23rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Focus What is the outlook for German residential? Poor economic growth and vulnerability to structural change in the office and retail sector are set to weigh on German property returns in the coming years. But solid rental prospects in the... 23rd October 2024 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Update The impact of a Trump victory on Europe A Trump victory in the US election would accelerate the structural shifts that are a major challenge for Europe including rising protectionism, reduced export opportunities to China and the US, and... 22nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Bonds Update Corporate credit spreads may stay tight a long while yet Although corporate credit spreads in the US and the UK have nearly reached multi-decade lows, we think they will remain near those levels over the next year or so. And we don’t see spreads in the euro... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak euro-zone activity data, ECB responds As widely expected, the ECB cut its policy rates by 25bp yesterday, but its policy statement was a bit more dovish than anticipated and a 50bp cut in the future is a growing possibility. Meanwhile... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily ECB easing unlikely to ease peripheral fiscal concerns The dovish tone at today’s ECB monetary policy meeting supports our view that the ECB will cut by 25bp at the December meeting. However, the risks to our policy rate forecasts are increasingly skewed... 17th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB history shows 50bp rate cut is possible Before the global financial crisis, 50bp interest rate cuts by the ECB were more common than 25bp reductions. Circumstances today are different, but if ECB policymakers are convinced that they need to... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update 25bp rate cuts by ECB most likely, but 50bp possible Christine Lagarde’s message in today’s ECB press conference was distinctly dovish and supports our view that the ECB will cut interest rates by 25bp at each of the next few meetings, at the very least... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Dutch logistics will continue to outperform Dutch prime logistics rent growth is set to be among the highest in the region over the next few years. That reflects both strong prospects for leasing, thanks to a bright economic outlook and greater... 17th October 2024 · 3 mins read
