Chief Economist's Note It’s not just France. Europe faces ongoing decline without fundamental reform at its core. When Europe features prominently in client questions it is not normally a good sign. The past few days have been no exception. The immediate concern is France, where the government of Michel Barnier... 9th December 2024
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that it has slowed in Q4. We expect growth to remain sluggish next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports from Europe... 6th December 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly French budget deadlock to continue Following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s administration, there is no realistic prospect of a stable government being formed that could address France’s fiscal problems. There is a risk that the... 6th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone growth outlook remains poor Data released today show that euro-zone household consumption rose strongly in Q3. But slowing real income growth means that we expect spending growth to be subdued in the coming quarters. Meanwhile... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
ECB Watch “Dovish” 25bp rate cut likely next week While there is a strong case for the ECB to accelerate the pace of policy easing by delivering a 50bp cut next week, a majority of the Governing Council seems to prefer 25bp, which would bring the... 5th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (October 2024) October’s decline in euro-zone retail sales followed a good third quarter for retailers. We suspect that the strength in sales in Q3 was just a one off and that growth will be subdued in the coming... 5th December 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will there be a retail renaissance in Paris? Paris retail rents surged in Q3 raising hopes for a sustained revival. But this jump probably reflects a temporary boost from the Olympics and momentum is expected to fade next year. Despite this, we... 4th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of contagion risks in EZ bond markets The probable imminent collapse of the French government is not having much impact on bond markets elsewhere in the euro-zone. And we think contagion risks will remain limited, as long as the monetary... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is France the new Greece? France is unlikely to have a government with a mandate to tighten fiscal policy anytime soon, so the risks to its bond market will continue to grow. Its debt dynamics are not as bad as those of Greece... 3rd December 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: Is France’s political crisis the next euro-zone debt crisis? 3rd December 2024, 3:00PM GMT The French government is on the brink of collapse, the country’s fiscal situation continues to deteriorate and its bonds are trading like their Greek counterparts.
Event Europe Drop-In: The slow agony of Germany’s auto industry 11th December 2024, 3:00PM GMT What’s the outlook for struggling German auto manufacturers? How big a threat do Donald Trump and Chinese imports present?
Europe Economics Weekly Growth, inflation and fiscal policy Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone economy is struggling and that price pressures in the services sector are easing. Meanwhile, the European Commission published its assessment of... 29th November 2024 · 9 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly States to defy Trump; COP29 wrap-up; EV crossroads Trump’s election victory means that states will have to take the lead on climate policy to push the green transition forward, as progress on the federal level looks unlikely. Meanwhile, weakness in... 29th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We see more trouble ahead for French OATs The spread between 10-year French and German government bond yields has risen again, and we forecast that it will continue to trend up next year. 29th November 2024 · 6 mins read
