Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (October 2024) Alongside its decision to cut interest rates by 25bp, the ECB stuck to its guidance about data dependence and making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. But the press release also acknowledged... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Some good news on underlying inflation The detailed breakdown of September’s inflation data, published this morning, showed that underlying price pressures softened slightly. We think that core inflation – and services inflation in... 17th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Further thoughts on France's 2025 budget We are nudging down our forecast for economic growth in France next year from 1.0% to 0.7% because of the government’s plan to tighten fiscal policy. That said, we think the deficit will come down... 16th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Italy budget: better than France but concerns remain Italy’s 2025 budget, set to be approved by cabinet today, suggests Italy will bring its deficit below the 3% of GDP limit imposed by EU fiscal rules much sooner than France. But Italy’s debt-to-GDP... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (August 2024) While the 1.8% m/m rise in industrial production in August was the strongest monthly rise in over a year, it is probably not the start of a sustained recovery. We think production is more likely to... 15th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Bank Lending Survey points to patchy recovery The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey suggests that demand for credit is recovering, but the rebound in housing loans is much stronger than in consumer or enterprise loans. 15th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s 2025 budget; two-way risk for energy prices Having survived a vote of no confidence earlier in the week, France’s government presented its 2025 budget on Thursday, which highlighted the perilous state of the public finances. Meanwhile, energy... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
ECB Watch Quarter-point cuts will keep on coming A 25bp interest rate cut looks nailed on next week, taking the deposit rate down to 3.25%. Christine Lagarde is likely to reiterate that policymakers expect to reduce rates further but avoid... 10th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rental growth to converge in Spain’s top high streets Prime high street rental growth in Barcelona has outpaced Madrid since late 2022. However, we think rental growth will converge in the coming years as tourism numbers fall back to pre-pandemic levels... 10th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: What will follow another ECB rate cut? 17th October 2024, 3:00PM BST Given the amount of signalling by Governing Council officials, it would be surprising if the ECB didn’t cut rates at its October meeting.
Europe Rapid Response Germany Industrial Production (Aug.) The big increase in German industrial production in August isn’t much reason to celebrate as it was only enough to offset the previous month’s sharp decline. The big picture remains that industrial... 8th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (August 2024) Euro-zone retail sales edged up in August but were still below their level in May. The big picture is that overall consumption growth is likely to remain subdued. 7th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France budget needs more than temporary fixes Despite the new French government’s plan to tighten fiscal policy by 2% of GDP next year, the country’s debt dynamics appear no better than they did a few weeks ago. Moreover, the government is... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the fall in headline inflation below 2% in September, should prompt another... 4th October 2024 · 1 min read
