Europe Economics Update Euro-zone household saving rate likely to stay high Data published today show that the euro-zone’s household saving rate rose even further in Q2 this year. The increase since late 2022 can be attributed to low consumer confidence and high interest... 4th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Headline inflation will be below 2% next year After falling to 1.8% in September, headline inflation in the euro-zone is almost certain to rise in the final few months of 2024. But we think that falling oil and natural gas prices will cause it to... 3rd October 2024 · 13 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q3 2024) All-property values have stabilised in the UK but we expect further falls elsewhere, especially in the US. Combined with a weaker office outlook, the US is set to underperform over the next couple of... 2nd October 2024 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Oil spikes, but not yet a concern for central banks Brent crude oil has jumped by around 4% to ~$74.5pb at the time of writing, following reports that Iran is preparing a ballistic missile strike against Israel. Much remains uncertain. A key issue – if... 1st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut by 25bp at next four meetings We now expect the ECB to cut interest rates by 25bp at each of its next four meetings, taking the deposit rate down from 3.5% currently to 2.5% in March. 1st October 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (September 2024) The drop in euro-zone headline inflation below 2% in September should be sufficient to persuade the ECB to cut rates in October, even though services inflation remained high. 1st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Draghi on green policies; UK farewell to coal power Mario Draghi’s report on EU competitiveness, published this month, provided food for thought on the EU’s decarbonisation strategy. Meanwhile, with the imminent closure of the Ratcliffe-on-Soar coal... 30th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fewer cuts may push US & EZ yields up & the EUR sideways We don’t see compelling reasons for policymakers in the US or the euro-zone to lower policy rates as much as market pricing suggests, so we expect long-dated bond yields there to edge up before long... 27th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly October ECB cut not a done deal A 25bp interest rate cut by the ECB at its next meeting in mid-October is now more-or-less fully priced into the market. But while the odds of a cut have risen, it is far from a done deal. Much will... 27th September 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response France & Spain HICP (September 2024) September’s inflation data from France and Spain all but confirm that the headline rate in the euro-zone as a whole – released next week – will show a sharp decline to below the 2% target. 27th September 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook A soft patch The global economy has hit a soft patch with the euro-zone virtually stagnant, the US labour market flagging and China rationing its policy stimulus. We expect this weakness to persist around the turn... 26th September 2024 (Updated 1st October 2024) · 44 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German logistics to go from leader to laggard Tight supply conditions have boosted German prime logistics rents despite weak occupier demand. This looks set to continue over the next year or two given completions pipelines for the German markets... 26th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update France’s fiscal problem – from bad to worse France’s new government suggested yesterday that the budget deficit will be over 6% of GDP this year, rather than the 5.6% as indicated only a couple of weeks ago. We expect the government to struggle... 26th September 2024 · 4 mins read
