As the data spin contrasting economic narratives, which will central banks follow?

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the further fall in wage growth and headline inflation, all but guarantees...

6th September 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Weekly

Mr Brexit and France’s €16bn fiscal hole

France’s new prime minister, Michel Barnier, will have his work cut out trying to pass a budget that will bring the deficit down to levels acceptable to the European Commission. Meanwhile, the latest...

6th September 2024 · 6 mins read

ECB Watch

ECB will keep to steady 25bp cuts

The ECB looks certain to cut its deposit rate from 3.75% to 3.5% next week and policymakers will probably signal that they expect to reduce rates only gradually in the coming quarters. President...

6th September 2024 · 8 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany Industrial Production (Jul.)

The big drop in German industrial production in July adds to the sense that the sector is facing a deep crisis and that, having contracted in Q2, the German economy may fall back into a technical...

6th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Is industrial demand back on track?

The most recent European industrial take-up figures were slightly more encouraging. We expect activity will continue to slowly improve over the next couple of years, supported by the consumer recovery...

5th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (July 2024)

Retail sales increased by 0.1% in July, and we expect them to rise further in the coming months, though at only a fairly modest pace.

5th September 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Worst of online drag is over, especially in the south

Recent estimates add to the evidence that online retail shares are growing more slowly across Europe. There has also been little sign of convergence in online shares, supporting our long-held view...

3rd September 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany State Elections

The big rise in populist parties in elections in two East German states at the weekend doesn’t threaten the survival of the governing coalition but it points to some political challenges in Germany...

2nd September 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Budget gridlock will keep Belgium’s deficit high

Belgium's political crisis and high budget deficit have largely gone unnoticed in past couple of months while all eyes have been on France. This Update answers some key questions about its political...

30th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Taking stock of the euro-zone’s Q3 performance so far

At this stage, we have no significant hard data with which to assess economic activity in the euro-zone in Q3. But the signs from the business surveys are not promising. Meanwhile, the minutes of the...

30th August 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone HICP (August 2024)

We doubt that August’s unexpected increase in services inflation will stop the ECB from cutting interest rates at its next meeting in September.

30th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Germany and Spain HICP (Aug.)

Inflation figures for Germany and Spain suggest that euro-zone headline inflation may have fallen to the ECB’s 2% target in August and that the core rate edged down. That paves the way for a September...

29th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Prime office rent gains to beat consensus expectations

Prime office rents look set to rise by more than we had previously expected over the next few years given still low CBD vacancy, preferences for prime space and cuts to the supply pipeline in 2025-26...

29th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Progress towards Capital Markets Union will be slow

Capital Markets Union (CMU) is regarded by many European policymakers as one of the key reforms needed to close the gap between EU and US productivity. But a full CMU is a long way off, and in any...

28th August 2024 · 4 mins read