Global Inflation Watch

Will the last mile be the hardest?

The easiest wins in the disinflation battle are behind us now that base effects from the previous surge in energy prices have run their course. Indeed, we expect energy effects to lift inflation in...

18th January 2024 · 16 mins read

ECB Watch

ECB to push back against early rate cut bets

The ECB is certain to keep interest rates unchanged next week, leaving the deposit rate at 4%, and we expect Christine Lagarde to push back against expectations for rate cuts in the first half of this...

18th January 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Early Q4 data show adjustment to higher rates goes on

Early prime office yield data for Q4 suggest that the property correction deepened at the end of 2023. The sharp rises in yields occurred despite a more favourable market interest rate environment...

17th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Climate Economics Update

Weak demand to keep lid on EU carbon price in 2024

The downward trend in the EU carbon price since early 2023 has been driven by lower demand for pollution permits on the back of industrial weakness and growth in cleaner energy sources. With energy...

17th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Domestic price pressures easing but from high level

The latest euro-zone inflation data, published this morning, will dampen policymakers’ concerns about the strength of domestic price pressures. But with underlying inflation still too high for comfort...

17th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Capital Daily

The hawks are ruling 2024 so far… but not really

A hawkish mood has prevailed in markets this year, and comments from the Fed’s Waller today seemed to add fuel to that fire, at least initially. But given how aggressively rate cuts were priced in...

16th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rental slowdown set to continue in 2024

The resilience of euro-zone rental growth last year surprised us. But our analysis indicates that better-than-expected economic activity explained much of that strength and as recession looms in 2024...

16th January 2024 · 3 mins read

Event

Global Drop-In: ECB, BoE, Fed meetings – Reading the tea leaves for rate cut hints

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We don’t expect the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank or Bank of England to cut rates in their first meetings of 2024, but they may drop hints about when monetary easing could start.

Europe Rapid Response

Germany GDP (2023)

Preliminary data published today show that German GDP contracted in Q4 and we expect it to continue to struggle this year.

15th January 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Focus

Household consumption will remain weak this year

Household consumption in the euro-zone looks set for another bad year. We think that it will be broadly flat in the first half of 2024, keeping overall GDP growth close to zero for the next few...

12th January 2024 · 10 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Policymakers start the year talking about rate cuts

In their first comments of 2024, ECB policymakers acknowledged that the next interest rate move is likely to be a cut, though they emphasised the need for greater certainty on inflation before going...

12th January 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Chart Pack

Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2024)

ECB policymakers still insist that monetary policy will remain tight throughout the first half of the year, if not longer. But we think that weakness in economic activity and lower inflation will...

10th January 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

German industry still has further to fall

Industrial output in Germany is likely to follow November’s decline with further falls this year. While the recent fall in natural gas prices could help to stem the bleeding in the near term, energy...

9th January 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Markets Update

We see 2024 ending much better than it started for asset markets

Although bonds and equities have started the year on the back foot, which may continue in the near term, we think they’ll fare better over the year as a whole. We project especially large gains for...

8th January 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov.) & EC Survey (Dec.)

The data published this morning are consistent with our view that euro-zone GDP is more likely to have contracted than expanded in the fourth quarter of last year. They also suggest that while...

8th January 2024 · 3 mins read