Europe Economics Update Underlying price pressures fading gradually Services inflation in the euro-zone has been stuck around 4% for the past 12 months, but there are good reasons to expect it to decline significantly next year. We think that core inflation will... 19th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Larger rate cuts increase the scope for property yield falls The larger and faster pace of ECB rate cuts we now expect means euro-zone government bond yields are likely to be lower in the coming years than previously forecast. This is positive for property... 19th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t worry about euro-dollar parity We think that the euro will fall to parity against the US dollar next year but will strengthen against some other currencies, such as the renminbi, and on a trade-weighted basis we forecast it to be... 18th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Initial thoughts on commodities and Trump tariffs While it is uncertain exactly how Trump will approach tariffs during a second term, China will clearly be in the firing line and commodities could be caught in the crossfire. Iron and steel, and to a... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe and geopolitics, Germany’s debt brake Ten days after the US presidential election we outline the key implications for Europe, ranging from higher tariffs and defence spending to a faster “decoupling” from China. Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz... 15th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Impact of 10% US tariff on euro-zone would be small We think that the impact of Trump’s proposed 10% universal tariff on euro-zone GDP would be very small, in part because we expect the effect to be offset by a weaker euro. So we aren’t pushing down... 15th November 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Shout it from the rooftops, CRE pricing has troughed It is increasingly clear to us that pricing in all three regions we forecast has bottomed, even if appraisals are yet to reflect that in mainland Europe and the US. And although we expect recent... 14th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update What to make of shrinking swap spreads in Germany We wouldn’t read much into the recent contraction in swap spreads in Germany. Despite turning negative, the 10-year euro-zone OIS/Bund spread is not far below its level before the pandemic. And it... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Trump and the war in Ukraine Donald Trump’s re-election has changed perceptions of how the war in Ukraine will develop, with many hoping for a quicker end to the conflict. This Update looks at how the war might evolve and the... 14th November 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus still expect office rent slowdown, CE more upbeat The strength of prime office rent growth in Europe in recent years has surprised forecasters, however there is broad agreement that rental growth will slow next year. We share that view, but are less... 14th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone GDP (2nd est.), Employment (Q3) & Industrial Production (September) The pick-up in euro-zone GDP growth to 0.4% q/q in Q3 is unlikely to be sustained. Timelier business and consumer surveys suggest that growth will slow in Q4, and we expect it to remain subdued next... 14th November 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tariff threat to German auto sector another headwind In light of the US imposing an additional 25% tariff on auto imports, we're resending this note from last November which looks at the impact of US auto tariffs on the euro-zone. The key point is that... 13th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update The costs of Spain’s floods and future climate events The recent floods in Spain have inflicted huge personal and financial costs. But in terms of GDP, the effect is likely to be quite small as the temporary loss in activity will probably be offset by... 12th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Euro parity is back on the cards The euro has suffered more than most in the wake of Trump’s victory and we doubt that will let up anytime soon. Given our view that tariffs will be imposed next year and the ECB will ease by more than... 11th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Nov. 2024) GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that the economy is poised for a weak Q4. We expect growth to remain slow next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports... 8th November 2024 · 1 min read
