Europe Economics Update New virus restrictions to stop EZ recovery in its tracks We think that the second wave of COVID-19 infections and new containment measures will cause the euro-zone economy to stagnate over the next six months or so. In quarter-on-quarter terms, GDP would... 20th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q4 GDP to be very weak, but good news for bonds With COVID-19 infections shooting up and governments implementing stricter containment measures, very weak GDP growth in Q4 seems all but certain. But with the ECB standing behind the bond market, the... 16th October 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Sep.) Core inflation is likely to edge up from the record low to which it fell in September. However, weak aggregate demand will keep it very subdued for the foreseeable future. 16th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) The recovery in euro-zone industrial output has slowed but is not going into reverse. The impact of the second COVID-19 wave should be much smaller than the first and will be felt most in the services... 14th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone labour market slack to rise further Data published by Eurostat yesterday underline that there was a large increase in labour market slack. Looking ahead, it is likely to continue to rise sharply. 9th October 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is COVID-19 the death-knell for physical retail? Retail has been hit hard by the COVID-19 crisis and lasting changes to online spending will bring further pain. While our estimates suggest that the impact is likely to be less severe than structural... 8th October 2020 · 27 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB account suggests no rush to boost the PEPP The account of the last ECB Governing Council meeting suggests that policymakers were in no hurry to increase the size of the PEPP. There has been more disappointing news on the economy since then... 8th October 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Second wave hitting growth prospects The reimposition of coronavirus restrictions has caused the recovery to stall – if not go into reverse in many countries – with France and Spain most affected. There are tentative signs that the... 7th October 2020 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Motor vehicles unlikely to drive euro-zone inflation We think car makers in the euro-zone will be able to keep pace with demand for new vehicles this year, despite having had to introduce social distancing measures to their production processes... 7th October 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final PMIs (Sep.) The increase in retail sales to above their pre-crisis level in August overstates the strength of the recovery in household consumption. Spending on travel, hospitality and entertainment will have... 5th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly New virus numbers peaking, inflation falls further There is a chink of light at the end of the tunnel for France and Spain, where the number of new COVID-19 cases has begun to fall. But this may be too late to prevent a contraction in GDP in the... 2nd October 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Sep.) September’s decline in euro-zone core inflation to a fresh record low was partly due to temporary factors that will be reversed in October. And the downward trend in core inflation this year has been... 2nd October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Low inflation expectations add to ECB worries While it is not clear that inflation expectations are less well anchored that in the past, they are at a low level. With the actual inflation rate falling, this reinforces the case for further ECB... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (August) The small rise in the euro-zone unemployment rate in August suggests that the winding back of short-time work schemes is already starting to take its toll on the region’s labour market. With... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lagarde points to dovish strategy conclusions President Lagarde’s speech today suggests that she will argue for a higher, symmetric inflation target and a move towards a form of average inflation targeting as part of the ECB’s strategy review... 30th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Sep.) The small improvement in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator for September was slightly better than anticipated. However, the index remained at a low level, and we suspect that it has not accurately... 29th September 2020 · 2 mins read
