Europe Commercial Property Update Diagnosing the opportunity in European life sciences The pandemic-driven boost in scientific research and development will support demand in the European life science sector, at least for the next few years. This bodes well for several markets we... 20th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB slightly more hawkish than expected Following a the ECB’s slightly hawkish policy shift this week, we have penciled in a rate hike for 2024 and think the chance of a 2023 lift-off has risen. The big picture, though, is that the ECB will... 17th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Nov.) November’s detailed inflation breakdown shows that the increase in price pressures is not just due to high energy costs and global demand-supply imbalances for durable goods. Services inflation has... 17th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (December) The fall in the Ifo BCI for December underlines that German’s economy has been hit hard by the latest Covid wave even before the Omicron variant has taken hold. The only consolation is that... 17th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Riksbank has some catching up to do The Riksbank (along with the RBNZ) is one of the few major central banks not to have a scheduled meeting in December. But with the Fed having put its hawkish cards on the table, rate hikes by the Bank... 16th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to continue, but gradually reduce, QE next year The ECB confirmed today that it will reduce the pace of its monthly asset purchases to €40bn by April next year. It plans to reduce them to €20bn by October and then continue as long as necessary. We... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q3) The rebound in euro-zone hourly wage growth in Q3 is a sign of base effects fading and there is no evidence that this is the beginning of a wage-price spiral that would concern the ECB. Indeed, wage... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) The renewed decline in the Composite PMI in December suggests that growth slowed to a crawl as tighter restrictions and growing consumer caution are taking their toll on economic activity, with the... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five key areas of Omicron uncertainty Given the fast-moving virus situation in Europe, and mindful of the fact that Omicron won’t be taking a festive break, this Update identifies five key areas of uncertainty to watch over the coming... 15th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) The rise in euro-zone industrial production in October means euro-zone industry started Q4 on a decent note. But supply-chain problems remain acute and, in any case, any improvement is likely to be... 14th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions and answers on Draghi’s future Italy will elect its next president in January, with prime minister Mario Draghi widely touted as a favourite to take up the post. If he did so, the current government would probably fall apart... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Omicron uncertainty weighs on activity in Q4 This week brought more bad news for the euro-zone economy, with the surge in cases and spread of the Omicron variant casting a shadow over services sector activity. While recent restrictions have... 10th December 2021 · 8 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to maintain flexibility in face of Omicron Just a day after we expect the Fed to prepare the ground for substantially tighter monetary policy in the coming years, policymakers at the ECB will probably commit to doubling their monthly APP... 9th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Omicron poses near-term downside risk to property recovery The near-term economic outlook has weakened, with the Omicron variant posing further downside risk. Meanwhile, inflation is likely to be higher for longer. However, we expect it to fall back by 2023... 9th December 2021 · 30 mins read
Europe Economics Update Revising down our Q4 growth forecast Tighter Covid restrictions and increased consumer caution appear to be causing euro-zone activity to decline. We have revised our euro-zone Q4 GDP growth forecast down to 0.2% q/q and the risks are... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Dutch economy to grow strongly after restrictions end The tightening of Covid restrictions in the Netherlands in response to the resurgence of the virus there in recent weeks will put a temporary brake on GDP growth in Q4. But we think that the... 8th December 2021 · 4 mins read
