Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Jan.) The final Composite PMIs suggest that economic activity in the euro-zone contracted in January. We suspect that the economy has become more resilient to pandemic-related restrictions than it was a... 3rd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4) Given that all of the major economies have already published their Q4 data, it came as no surprise that euro-zone GDP contracted by 0.7% q/q. With strict containment measures still necessary to... 2nd February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (December) The stability of the euro-zone’s unemployment rate at just 8.3% in December highlights once again the extent to which government policies have protected jobs during the pandemic. And as this support... 1st February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update What explains the strength of inflation in January? January’s surprisingly large increases in inflation in Germany and Spain were due to a range of factors, including a rise in VAT, higher energy and holiday prices, and methodological changes. As a... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Poor start to vaccine rollout poses risks to recovery A decline in GDP in Q1 now seems highly likely, but the bigger concern is that slow vaccination programmes and concerns about virus variants may delay the lifting of restrictions in Q2 and beyond... 29th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Jan.) January’s fall in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone supports our view that the economy will contract again in Q1. The survey also suggests that inflationary pressure... 28th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Inflation to stay much lower in euro-zone than US Data published this week confirmed that inflation is extremely weak in the euro-zone, and we expect it to remain well below target in the coming years even as inflation rises above 2% in the US. Next... 22nd January 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB not likely to accept tighter policy While yesterday’s ECB policy statement and press conference left many investors with the impression the Bank may be willing to tolerate higher peripheral bond yields, we doubt that this is the case... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Flash PMIs (January) The renewed decline in the Composite PMI in January confirms that the tighter measures imposed are taking their toll on the economy and that services are bearing the brunt. With restrictions unlikely... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We expect ECB support to push peripheral yields down further While Christine Lagarde sounded slightly more hawkish than expected at the press conference following today’s ECB meeting, we still expect central bank support to drive “peripheral” government bond... 21st January 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold for several months As expected, the ECB left its policy settings unchanged today and, given the flexibility of its current policy of implicit yield curve control, will probably make no changes until the second half of... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Vaccine to drive recovery but risks remain The vaccine rollout is likely to make enough progress for most pandemic-related restrictions to be lifted in the spring. If so, we think euro-zone GDP will regain its pre-pandemic level by the middle... 21st January 2021 · 35 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Growth in Paris office rents has further to go Despite the softness in occupier activity, prime office rents in the French capital grew at a healthy pace in 2020. And with the labour market set to recover in the second half of this year and a... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Dec.) December’s final HICP release shows that core inflation remained very weak across the board at the end of last year, with no signs that prices pressures are building. Inflation will increase in the... 20th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q4 2020) The Q4 Bank Lending Survey revealed that the demand for bank credit fell at the end of last year, and banks tightened their lending standards as they became more worried about the economic outlook... 19th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Virus data cloud Q1 outlook, Italian politics in turmoil While the economic data published this week were fairly encouraging about the euro-zone’s performance at the end of last year, the deterioration in the virus situation and associated tougher measures... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
