Europe Economics Update Rising inflation expectations causing alarm Policymakers at the ECB are becoming more concerned about inflation expectations, with professional forecasters, financial investors, consumers and firms all anticipating that the pace of price... 10th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (May) The small rise in the ZEW measure of German investor sentiment in May left it still very low. And the current conditions index fell further, which is consistent with our view that the economy will... 10th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics EUR/USD: The case for parity We think the euro will eventually weaken further, falling to parity against the US dollar, as the euro-zone economy falters, the terms of trade shock from higher energy prices feeds through, and the... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weakness of activity won’t deter the ECB A rate hike by the ECB in July, or possibly even in June, looks increasingly likely. But policymakers seem to be in no hurry to announce a new tool to keep sovereign bond spreads contained. Meanwhile... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (March) The slump in output in March shows that the war in Ukraine is hitting manufacturers hard even before a ban on Russian energy imports has taken effect and before the ECB has raised interest rates. We... 6th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation becoming more entrenched The latest data suggest that the increase in inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent. While headline inflation only edged up in April, the core measure jumped to 3.5%. A range of... 5th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB may need more than promises to contain spreads The prospect of tighter monetary policy in the euro-zone has raised the threat of a bigger sell-off in the region’s bond markets. If this happens, we think the ECB would ultimately intervene to... 4th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) The decrease in euro-zone retail sales in March is the first indication from official data that the war in Ukraine is weighing on consumption. With the final PMI surveys pointing to price pressures... 4th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Q1 GDP data give a false steer on US vs euro-zone Uncharacteristically, euro-zone GDP rose while US GDP fell in Q1. But the weak outturn in the US partly reflected temporary factors and domestic spending remained much stronger than in the euro-zone... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Low equilibrium rates will limit ECB policy tightening Equilibrium real interest rates in the euro-zone appear to be below zero and lower than in most other advanced economies. We expect them to stay that way. While the ECB is likely to raise interest... 3rd May 2022 · 13 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe’s supply problems still intense The timeliest surveys show that supply problems faced by euro-zone companies have eased a little this year, but remain intense. This will continue to weigh on production and keep inflation high. UK... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Mar.) The euro-zone unemployment rate fell to a new record low in March, and the latest business surveys suggest that employment will continue to increase at a decent pace. With the surveys also showing... 3rd May 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Stagflation may prolong the woes of euro-zone financial markets The latest euro-zone economic data reinforce our view that the region is headed for a year of stagflation; against this backdrop we expect that euro-zone assets and the euro will struggle over the... 29th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy struggling, euro heading to parity Data released this week showed that the euro-zone economy eked out a small expansion in Q1, but we think that it will contract in Q2. The weak economic outlook combined with the ECB's likely more... 29th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1 2022) and Flash HICP (April) The small increase in euro-zone GDP in Q1 means that the region will avoid a technical recession in the first half of the year. But rising inflation and the fallout from the Ukraine war mean that GDP... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update War impact reinforces investment slowdown While Q1 investment data showed further strength, the impact of the war in Ukraine on investor sentiment, economic growth and interest rates support our view that pan-European (excl. UK) investment... 29th April 2022 · 2 mins read
