Europe Data Response EC Survey (Mar.) March’s jump in the EC’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for the euro-zone took it to above its long-run average. But it was still below its pre-pandemic level and with virus restrictions now in... 30th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Updating our GDP and markets forecasts This week, we revised our forecasts for GDP, bond yields and the euro. We now think that the euro-zone economy will recover more slowly than we previously anticipated, growing by about 3% this year... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Five key questions on the EU’s carbon border tax Later this year, the European Commission is expected to provide draft details on how the EU will introduce and implement a carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM, often dubbed a ‘carbon border tax’)... 26th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The annual rate of money and lending growth remained strong in February, and with the ECB likely to make significant asset purchases throughout this year and next, money growth will remain well above... 25th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Recovery postponed again We are revising down our forecast for euro-zone GDP growth due to the resurgence of virus cases, slow pace of vaccination and extension of lockdowns. The recovery is likely to be delayed until the... 24th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics ‘Export ban’ won’t solve the EU’s vaccine woes The EU’s tougher stance on vaccine exports might help to secure some concessions and additional doses from the UK. But it will do nothing to combat vaccine hesitancy in parts of the bloc and is... 24th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The sharp increase in euro-zone consumer confidence in March came as a big surprise given tighter restrictions across the bloc and ongoing difficulties with the AstraZeneca vaccine. That said... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (March) March’s rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI pushed it back above the 50 mark for the first time in six months, but the recent tightening of restrictions in a number of countries suggests the... 24th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Are data centres a viable alternative? Thanks to changing consumption patterns and structural and cyclical knocks to the traditional property sectors, both occupier and investor demand for data centres set new records last year. But, while... 19th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No show of ECB strength, third wave underway While we assume that the ECB has stepped up its bond purchases under the PEPP this week, bond market moves have provided little reassurance that the Bank is determined to squash any rise in yields... 19th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone wage growth to remain subdued Even as inflation picks up this year, additional labour market slack, weak past inflation and a focus on jobs protection at the expense of pay increases all mean that euro-zone wage growth will remain... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jan.) The euro-zone’s goods trade surplus narrowed in January, partly reversing some of the widening since last April. Looking ahead, goods exports should grow fairly steadily this year on the back of the... 18th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB will be more relaxed about inflation over 2% We suspect that the ECB will be more tolerant of inflation in the future than it has been in the past. In particular, it is likely to look through a short period of above-target inflation this year... 18th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Europe falling further behind on the virus front A new wave of coronavirus cases in Europe, and the pause in usage of the AstraZeneca vaccine, raises the risk that the EU will fall even further behind the UK and US in its recovery from the pandemic. 17th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Feb.) The detailed breakdown confirmed that the drop in core inflation in February was largely due to the reversal of temporary factors which pushed it up in January. Looking ahead, we think higher energy... 17th March 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jan.) Industrial production rose in January and the business surveys suggest that, despite some supply-chain problems, the outlook is fairly bright. While domestic demand looks set to grow slowly by... 12th March 2021 · 2 mins read
