Europe Economic Outlook Euro-zone being left behind The slow vaccination programme has left the euro-zone well behind the US and UK incoming out of the health crisis. We think the economy will not expand at all in Q2 and GDP growth will be much weaker... 15th April 2021 · 35 mins read
ECB Watch ECB to stick to current PEPP purchase pace After promising a “significant” increase in bond purchases in March, the ECB Governing Council will not make any policy changes at next week’s meeting. Officials may try again to explain how they... 15th April 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Yet another blow to Europe’s vaccine rollout The delayed start to deliveries of the J&J vaccine is yet another blow to the rollout in continental Europe and on its own could delay things by at least one month compared to a situation in which the... 14th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) Euro-zone industrial production fell in February, reinforcing our view that the euro-zone economy has made a weak start to the year. Although the business surveys have overstated the strength of... 14th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Can we trust the business surveys? A divergence between strong surveys and weak industrial ‘hard’ data, mainly in the euro-zone, has again raised questions about how to interpret the business surveys. There are several reasons why... 13th April 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) Euro-zone retail sales rose in February but were 2.8% below their pre-pandemic levels. In many countries coronavirus restrictions have been tightened since then, and are unlikely to be eased again... 12th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Households still accumulating excess savings We estimate that households accumulated “excess” savings of around 4.4% of GDP last year. But they are unlikely to spend this cash any time soon, so it will probably not do much to boost the recovery. 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Business surveys overstating strength of the economy The strength of the euro-zone’s business surveys has not been matched by the official data, and with tighter restrictions being imposed for longer in many countries the level of output is likely to... 9th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Feb.) The unexpected fall in industrial production in February means that German GDP will almost certainly have contracted in Q1. With severe restrictions likely to remain in place until well into the... 9th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Still waiting for a shot in the arm… The euro-zone economy is doing better than many expected given that much of the hospitality and travel sector is still closed due to virus-related restrictions. Indeed, the latest business surveys... 8th April 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Increase in ECB QE underwhelming so far The account of March’s ECB meeting showed that the decision to increase asset purchases was agreed by all members, but that some were reluctant to do much more. In practice, purchases haven’t risen... 8th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Mar.) The euro-zone Composite PMI rose to an 8-month high in March, but the level of activity remains low. And while the PMIs suggest that price pressures are building, we suspect this will be temporary. 7th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Feb.) The euro-zone’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.3% in February despite tighter virus measures being tightened, highlighting the extent to which government policies have protected jobs during the... 6th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Falling behind on vaccines, stimulus While European manufacturing output is recovering strongly, tougher coronavirus restrictions announced in France and Italy this week have underlined that a sustained and broad-based economic rebound... 1st April 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation will remain higher in Germany Inflation looks set to rise further in Germany than in most other euro-zone economies this year and we suspect that it will remain higher there after the pandemic is over. However, we doubt that this... 31st March 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone HICP Inflation (March 2021) Euro-zone inflation continued on its upward trend in March and we think it will rise above 2% in the second half of the year. But this is largely due to temporary factors that are likely to fade in... 31st March 2021 · 2 mins read
