Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) Euro-zone retail sales rose again in March to back above their pre-pandemic levels. The planned lifting of restrictions should allow sales to improve further in the coming months, so household... 6th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone recovery about to begin Following the recent progress on vaccinations across the euro-zone, we are revising up our GDP forecasts. We now think that the recovery will begin in Q2 and that the economy will return to its pre... 5th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Apr.) The PMIs may be a less reliable guide to activity growth than normal, but recent progress on vaccinations suggests that the euro-zone economy will start to recover in Q2. And price pressures are... 5th May 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1, first estimate) Confirmation that the euro-zone economy contracted again in Q1 means that the region suffered a second technical recession in just over a year. But the good news is that things should get better... 30th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP Inflation (April) Euro-zone inflation continued on its upward trend in April and we think that it will soon rise above 2%. But that should only be temporary and we expect it to fall back below the ECB’s target in 2022. 30th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response French GDP (Q1 2021) The unexpected increase in French GDP in Q1 suggests that the economy has been more resilient to the poor health situation and restrictions than we had thought. Nevertheless, with France in a full... 30th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) The slowdown in money growth in March in year-on-year terms was largely due to base effects. It was still in the double digits and should remain strong over the rest of this year at least. But with... 29th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to put more emphasis on house prices in future The ECB is likely as part of the strategic review to place more emphasis on housing costs and may initiate the creation of a parallel price index that includes them, but it will not change the... 28th April 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Vienna office rental growth on hold until 2022 The poor near-term economic backdrop means that occupier activity will remain weak this year. But we think that the tightness in supply will prevent office rents from falling and support rental growth... 28th April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How big an impact will Next Generation EU have? Next Generation EU has the potential to provide a significant stimulus to the economy over the next six years. But the impact on GDP might be smaller than most expect, while the impact on long-run... 27th April 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Loose monetary policy keeping interest spending low There were no real surprises at this week’s ECB meeting, with policymakers doing little to push back against the increase in bond yields since March. But yields remain extremely low by historical... 23rd April 2021 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (April) April’s small rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI was a bit of a surprise given the tightening of virus restrictions. But the survey has overstated the strength of activity in recent months, and the... 23rd April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB won’t be micro-managing the bond market In today’s ECB press conference, Christine Lagarde did not seem fazed by the recent rise in bond yields or the evidence of tighter bank lending conditions. But we suspect that policymakers will push... 22nd April 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Labour market slack to keep wage pressures in check The amount of slack in the euro-zone’s labour market diminished slightly at the end of last year. But crucially, it remained higher than it was in 2019 and it is unlikely to have fallen much further... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q1 2021) The Q1 ECB Bank Lending Survey revealed that the demand for bank credit fell in early 2021, and banks continued to tighten their lending standards as the pandemic dragged on and vaccine rollouts... 20th April 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Vaccine blues threaten to further delay recovery News that distribution of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine is being paused is another blow to Europe’s vaccination programme and reinforces our view that the euro-zone economy is unlikely to begin a... 16th April 2021 · 7 mins read
