Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone on the rebound Football fans will not need to be told that life is still not quite back to normal in Europe as the stadiums are less than half full and “Euro 2020” is taking place a full year late. But in many... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update No-Frexit Le Pen would still be a step back for France Marine Le Pen’s RN party is likely to do well in French regional elections this month, a key test ahead of next year’s presidential election. A Le Pen presidency would no longer entail a “Frexit” but... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (May) The final euro-zone inflation data for May do not provide much evidence that price pressures are rising as the economy re-opens. We suspect that these will materialise in the coming months and will... 17th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Labour shortages little threat to German wage restraint There is less spare capacity in Germany’s labour market than elsewhere in the euro-zone, and economic activity is set to regain its pre-crisis level before long. However, we think wage inflation... 16th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Higher oil production to weigh on prices in 2022 Higher production from OPEC+ member states and in the Americas means that global oil production is set to rise sharply over the next eighteen months. This is the reason why we expect oil prices to... 16th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Delta variant won’t derail the euro-zone’s recovery The Delta variant does not appear to have taken hold in mainland Europe as yet, but the experience of the Alpha variety suggests that it could be dominant by the end of July. While this would be far... 16th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Hourly Labour Costs (Q1) Average hourly labour cost growth slowed in Q1, and we expect wage growth to remain subdued over the coming years. This will keep underlying inflationary pressures down. 16th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is the ECB over-optimistic on growth? The ECB made significant upward revisions to its GDP forecasts last week, presumably encouraged by the recent experience of other economies. The Bank also seems to have come round to our view that the... 15th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The further rise in euro-zone industrial production in April suggests that the sector is continuing to recover. Supply disruptions look set to drag on for a while yet, constraining the sector’s... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth outlook improving, but ECB too optimistic The euro-zone’s growth outlook is improving thanks to the acceleration in the vaccine rollout and the re-opening of the economy. However, we were surprised at the size of the upward revision to the... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update We now forecast major CEE currencies to outperform the euro We now expect interest rates to rise across Central and Eastern Europe in the coming years and for all the major currencies to strengthen against the euro, with the Czech koruna and Polish zloty... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Not tapering yet, despite chunky forecast upgrades Having left the pace of its PEPP purchases unchanged and made big upgrades to its GDP forecasts, we think the ECB will start to taper the PEPP later this year. But we think it will eventually make an... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation, monetary policy and the outlook for US & E-Z yields Despite the limited market reaction to today’s higher-than expected US CPI print, we still think that the yield of US 10-year Treasuries will rise this year as high inflation proves persistent. We... 10th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Labour market recovery won’t spark wage spiral We estimate that the spare capacity in the euro-zone’s labour market has increased by around four million people, or 2.5% of the labour force, since the start of the pandemic. This is likely to... 9th June 2021 · 20 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) Euro-zone GDP fell in Q1 and official data for April have been weak, but timelier data suggest that the recovery is now underway. We have pencilled in a 1% q/q rise in GDP in Q2, with risks to the... 8th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Springing back to life…again The economic outlook has brightened as the virus has subsided and governments have permitted people to return to the shops and restaurants as well as to travel a bit more freely. However... 4th June 2021 · 12 mins read
