Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug.) The 1.5% m/m increase in industrial production in August was partly due to an out-sized rise in Ireland and was not enough to reverse the fall in July. All the evidence suggests that euro-zone... 12th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly 100bp ECB hike on the cards; recession looks certain The account of September’s ECB meeting and the latest economic data make a 100bp rate hike by the ECB this month, which would bring the deposit rate to 1.75%, look increasingly likely. Next week... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recession will be deeper than most expect A recession has looked unavoidable for some time and we now think it will be deeper than most anticipate. Manufacturing output is already declining and services activity is slowing. What’s more... 6th October 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Aug.) The 2% year-on-year decline in euro-zone retail sales in August will probably look mild by the end of the year. Measures of consumer confidence point to sales falling much further, which seems quite... 6th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Sep.) The final euro-zone PMIs for September suggested that price pressures in the region are not yet starting to ease, even as activity appears to be in decline. We think some economies, including Germany... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Weaker demand to limit Paris office rent growth Falls in Paris Centre West vacancy are expected to support a further pick-up in prime office rents in the second half of the year. But this will be short-lived, with the deteriorating outlook for... 4th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ risks turmoil even if governments stay responsible While we don’t expect euro-zone governments to engage in UK-style large discretionary fiscal loosening, Italy’s weak public finances and/or the ECB’s likely reluctance to intervene in government bond... 30th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.) The jump in the euro-zone’s headline inflation rate in September into double digits will be of grave concern to the ECB. Despite the weak economic outlook, we expect the Bank to prioritise inflation... 30th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash Inflation (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.) 30th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Sep.) The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator fell to a two-year low in September with business surveys echoing the message from more timely surveys that activity has slowed sharply. With Russia squeezing gas... 29th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB (like BoE) likely to re-start asset purchases soon The UK financial crisis is a self-inflicted wound, but the sell-off in gilts underlines that there is less fiscal room for manoeuvre than there was when policy rates were close to zero. We think the... 28th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Italian General Election Right-wing victory not immediate concern, but long-term risks remain The widely-anticipated right-wing coalition victory in Italy’s general election does not pose an immediate risk to bond markets... 26th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to raise rates further, and perhaps faster We revised up our forecasts for the ECB’s key policy rate this week, and now see it peaking at 3% next year rather than 2%. Moreover, we think there is a growing chance of a 100bp rate hike next month... 23rd September 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (September) September’s PMI surveys are consistent with a small decline in euro-zone GDP in Q3. And the increases in the prices indices suggest that inflation is not yet at a turning point. 23rd September 2022 · 2 mins read
