Europe Commercial Property Update What will happen to submarket rents after COVID-19? With more hybrid working post-pandemic, the view is that office rents will be under pressure for many years. This raises questions about which locations could be more resilient and if rents in central... 8th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone driver shortages less acute than in the UK The shortage of heavy goods vehicle (HGV) drivers in the euro-zone appears to be nowhere near as acute as in the UK. We therefore don’t expect to see a surge in drivers’ wages that would lead to... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) With revised data showing that the euro-zone economy performed even better than previously thought in Q2, the ECB is sure to revise up its GDP forecasts on Thursday. That said, even if it reduces the... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (July) The small increase in German industrial production in July merely reversed the fall in June, and left output well below normal. While the rest of the economy is now close to a full recovery, supply... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in inflation is not over Headline inflation came in higher than our above-consensus forecast in August and, at 3.0%, reached its highest level for a decade. It is likely to rise a bit further in the coming months: producer... 6th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Inflation to rise further, but then fall Inflation will rise further from the 3% level reached in August in the coming months, but we are confident that it will drop back sharply next year, as most measures of underlying inflation and wage... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (July) & Final PMIs (Aug) The recovery in euro-zone retail sales ended in July as sales fell sharply compared to June. However this does not affect our view that consumption will grow strongly in Q3, not least because we think... 3rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch Slower purchase pace in sight, but rate hikes are not The ECB is likely to use next week’s meeting to prepare the ground for a very gradual reduction in asset purchases under the emergency PEPP. But, taking a leaf out of the Fed’s book, it will stress... 2nd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Expanded vaccine coverage to keep Delta in check The recent fall in aggregate new daily Covid cases in the euro-zone, largely due to the success of the vaccination programme, means that governments in the region should be able to avoid re-imposing... 2nd September 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Jul.) & Final Mfg PMIs (Aug.) The fall in euro-zone unemployment in July appears to be down to a decline in the overall labour force rather than an increase in employment, highlighting that the labour market recovery still has a... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation & the outlook for E-Z & US Yields While we think that 10-year government bond yields in both the US and the euro-zone will rise over the next few years, we expect increases in yields to be much smaller in the euro-zone given the... 31st August 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Spanish retail rents to rebound from next year We expect a recovery in domestic and foreign spending along with online penetration rates below most other euro-zone markets to support moderate growth in Spanish prime retail rents over the 2022-25... 31st August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Getting a handle on euro-zone wage data Euro-zone wage data are published only quarterly, and with a long lag, and have been distorted by pandemic-related effects. So it will be another six months before we get a clearer idea of the... 31st August 2021 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Business surveys point to continued recovery The business surveys for August published this week provided some reassurance that the euro-zone economy is continuing to grow at a decent pace. And the decline in the forward-looking components is... 27th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB may not agree taper until December The account of the ECB’s July meeting confirms that a minority of Governing Council members objected to the dovish shift in the Bank’s interest rate guidance. Partly because of this, we now think the... 26th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (July) Year-on-year money and lending growth has fallen sharply this year and we think it will decline further. With the subdued level of economic activity also weighing on consumer prices, we don’t think... 26th August 2021 · 4 mins read
