Europe Economics Update ECB growing more uncertain about inflation outlook The account of September’s ECB meeting revealed many policymakers believed that inflation may stay higher for longer than the Bank’s projections show. Recent developments have added to the upside... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Can Europe keep the lights on? The extraordinary rise in European gas prices in recent weeks has raised the possibility that, as a last resort, European governments may need to ration the supply of electricity to businesses or... 7th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Did Europeans leave cities (and have they returned)? The pandemic and widespread use of remote working appeared to entice some Europeans to leave cities last year. However, the recent improvement in city mobility adds evidence to our view that this... 7th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (August) The whopping 4.7% m/m fall in German manufacturing production in August left industrial output 9.0% below its February 2020 level. With conditions having worsened since then, Germany’s manufacturing... 7th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) August’s euro-zone retail sales data suggest that consumer spending on goods is flatlining. But overall consumption is still likely to have grown fairly strongly in Q3 as spending on services... 6th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Gas & coal surge to support other commodity prices Natural gas and coal prices soared in September. In turn, this has raised the output costs of industrial metals, most notably those which are especially energy intensive such as aluminium and steel... 5th October 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Changing HICP weights add to inflation uncertainty Changes to the weights applied to the goods and services in the inflation basket pushed inflation up in January, but since April the new weights have kept the headline rate lower than it would... 5th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Sep.) The PMIs are consistent with the euro-zone’s economic recovery losing some momentum as GDP approaches its pre-pandemic size and as supply shortages take their toll, especially in manufacturing. The... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Households’ excess savings continue to build Households continued to accumulate “excess” savings in Q2 this year, with those held as cash and bank deposits equivalent to about 4% of GDP. We do not expect all of this to be spent, but some of it... 4th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to fall as market returns to surplus in 2022 We expect a gradual normalisation in demand growth and a rebound in supply will start to weigh on oil prices from the fourth quarter. So far this year, growth in demand has outpaced supply, helping... 4th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly “Transitory” inflation won’t spook the ECB We have revised up our inflation forecasts this week and expect the surge in gas prices to keep inflation above the ECB’s target for longer than previously anticipated. Nonetheless, inflation looks... 1st October 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Sep.) Euro-zone inflation looks set to continue on its upward trend and we think it will soon hit 4%. That makes it more likely that the ECB will scale back its asset purchases substantially in March. But... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB could claim inflation is “transient” for years The ECB is likely to argue that the increase in inflation to above its 2% target is “transient” even if it continues for much longer than currently expected. The key question is not how long inflation... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Risk of euro-zone labour market “cliff edge” very low Euro-zone governments’ reduction in support for jobs will not cause unemployment in the region to jump, since there are now relatively few workers benefiting, and hiring activity is strong. But... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Aug.) The fall in euro-zone unemployment in August brings the jobless rate back very close to its pre-pandemic level. But employment is still below pre-virus levels, highlighting that the labour market... 30th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (September) The small improvement in economic sentiment in the euro-zone in September provides reassurance that supply shortages and the Delta variant will not cause a sharp slowdown in economic growth... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
