Europe Economics Weekly Economy stagnating; inflation volatility ahead The recent run of better-than-expected activity data in the euro-zone only look good compared to previously dire expectations. The big picture is that the euro-zone’s growth prospects look bleak. Next... 27th January 2023 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Get ready for a German inflation surprise in January The reversal of temporary subsidies and changes to weightings will probably push headline German HICP inflation back up in January. But the bigger picture remains that the headline rate will fall... 27th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hawkish ECB will weigh on euro-zone investment Euro-zone investment contracted sharply in Q4 2022 and we think further interest rate rises will prolong this weakness throughout much of this year. But we expect a recovery in transactions towards... 27th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Lending weak and savers locking up their cash December’s euro-zone money and credit data show that the effects of rising interest rates were starting to be felt. Households and firms shifted their money into longer-term deposits which are less... 27th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Spain GDP (Q4) Spain’s GDP increased in Q4 and is performing better than we expected only a couple of months ago. But Spain is still a laggard in Europe, with the economy smaller than it was before Covid. We think... 27th January 2023 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch We think peak deposit rate now likely to be 3½% With a 50bp rate hike at next week’s ECB meeting seemingly a done deal, the main point of interest next week will be any messaging about how much further rates will rise beyond that. We now think that... 26th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jan.) The further increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index in January confirms that the recovery in German business sentiment that started at the end of 2022 has continued this year. But the fall in its... 25th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Business Climate Indicator (January) 25th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We suspect gains in euro-zone equities may slow from here Today's PMIs added to a streak of stronger-than-expected economic data in the euro-zone. But much of the good news now appears to be discounted in euro-zone equities, so we expect them to rise at a... 24th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Be wary of the Spanish inflation data A closer look at Spain’s inflation data shows that there are significant measurement difficulties affecting both energy and core price data. However, we still expect measured headline inflation to... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What explains the euro-zone’s resilience vs the US? Recent data have shown that activity in the US is weakening as we had expected while that in the euro-zone has been surprisingly resilient. The resilience seems to reflect a combination of supply and... 24th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jan.) The increase in the flash euro-zone Composite PMI for January left it consistent with the economy roughly stagnating. With employment intentions and price pressures still high, there is nothing here... 24th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily The euro and relative interest rate expectations We don’t think government bond yield gaps with the US will continue to shift in favour of the euro-zone as they have over recent months, even if the ECB continues hiking after the Fed stops. That will... 23rd January 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Rise of fixed-rate loans makes ECB’s job harder The shift away from variable towards fixed-rate mortgages in many European countries over the past 15 years means that it will take longer than in the past for interest rate hikes by the ECB to feed... 23rd January 2023 · 11 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany to avoid industrial recession We now think German industry will continue to grow in the coming months as lower gas prices, easing supply shortages and high backlogs of orders support production. 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
