Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Dec.) The final Composite PMIs for December confirm that the euro-zone economy ended 2021 on a weak note, consistent with our view that GDP rose by only about 0.2% q/q in Q4. They also suggest that price... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Surge in gas prices will keep inflation higher This year’s surge in natural gas prices means that HICP inflation may be up to one percentage point higher next year than it would otherwise have been. However, aggregate energy inflation is still... 22nd December 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Update European natural gas prices surging on supply fears We always expected European natural gas prices to remain high over the winter because of low stocks, but heightened uncertainty about supply from Russia has caused prices to skyrocket again. Assuming... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Consumer Confidence (Dec.) December’s decline in consumer confidence adds to the list of deteriorating consumer indicators. We expect household spending to contribute to a marked slowdown in GDP growth in Q4 to just 0.2% q/q. 21st December 2021 · 2 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect the S&P 500 to make only small gains While we have raised our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for the S&P 500, we still expect gains in the index to be smaller over the next two years than they have been in 2021 and on average over the past... 21st December 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Diagnosing the opportunity in European life sciences The pandemic-driven boost in scientific research and development will support demand in the European life science sector, at least for the next few years. This bodes well for several markets we... 20th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB slightly more hawkish than expected Following a the ECB’s slightly hawkish policy shift this week, we have penciled in a rate hike for 2024 and think the chance of a 2023 lift-off has risen. The big picture, though, is that the ECB will... 17th December 2021 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Nov.) November’s detailed inflation breakdown shows that the increase in price pressures is not just due to high energy costs and global demand-supply imbalances for durable goods. Services inflation has... 17th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (December) The fall in the Ifo BCI for December underlines that German’s economy has been hit hard by the latest Covid wave even before the Omicron variant has taken hold. The only consolation is that... 17th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Riksbank has some catching up to do The Riksbank (along with the RBNZ) is one of the few major central banks not to have a scheduled meeting in December. But with the Fed having put its hawkish cards on the table, rate hikes by the Bank... 16th December 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB to continue, but gradually reduce, QE next year The ECB confirmed today that it will reduce the pace of its monthly asset purchases to €40bn by April next year. It plans to reduce them to €20bn by October and then continue as long as necessary. We... 16th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q3) The rebound in euro-zone hourly wage growth in Q3 is a sign of base effects fading and there is no evidence that this is the beginning of a wage-price spiral that would concern the ECB. Indeed, wage... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Dec.) The renewed decline in the Composite PMI in December suggests that growth slowed to a crawl as tighter restrictions and growing consumer caution are taking their toll on economic activity, with the... 16th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five key areas of Omicron uncertainty Given the fast-moving virus situation in Europe, and mindful of the fact that Omicron won’t be taking a festive break, this Update identifies five key areas of uncertainty to watch over the coming... 15th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Oct.) The rise in euro-zone industrial production in October means euro-zone industry started Q4 on a decent note. But supply-chain problems remain acute and, in any case, any improvement is likely to be... 14th December 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions and answers on Draghi’s future Italy will elect its next president in January, with prime minister Mario Draghi widely touted as a favourite to take up the post. If he did so, the current government would probably fall apart... 13th December 2021 · 3 mins read
