Europe Economics Update Are consumer spending habits returning to normal? We don’t have much timely official data on the detailed breakdown of consumption. But the available evidence shows a sharp (albeit uneven) increase in spending on services since the end of Q2. While... 22nd October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly A fresh start for the Bundesbank? Other than Mr Weidmann’s abrupt departure from the Bundesbank, the news this week has been dominated by the twin problems of rising inflation and slowing economic growth. There is more bad news to... 22nd October 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) October’s euro-zone PMI surveys suggest that supply problems in the manufacturing sector are getting worse, weighing on output and causing price pressures to intensify. 22nd October 2021 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB insisting that inflation is largely transient Nobody expects the ECB Governing Council to make any policy changes at next week’s monetary policy meeting. However, Christine Lagarde will address concerns about rising inflationary pressures and we... 21st October 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Near-term upgrades to German office rental growth Prime office rental growth in Germany is on track to be stronger than forecast in the near term. However, we think rental growth will slow in the coming years as the supply of modern space is expected... 20th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final HICP (Sep.) Euro-zone inflation looks set to climb further in the coming months as higher input and energy costs feed through. An unusually cold winter would put even more upward pressure on gas prices in the... 20th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Running into troubled waters Supply chain problems will slow the recovery and keep inflation above target until around the middle of next year. Beyond that, however, the economy should get back on track. After regaining its pre... 19th October 2021 · 31 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Why are prime industrial rental values not taking off? Despite strong demand, we think that high capital values have kept development profitable and have prevented an acceleration in euro-zone prime industrial rental value growth. However, as capital... 15th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy, semi-conductors and Italy’s Green Pass The continued high level of energy prices strengthens our view that euro-zone inflation will keep rising in the coming months. But by lowering consumers’ purchasing power, it could actually reduce... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Wider market confirms recovery in prime data The latest MSCI data show that the wider market has moved roughly in line with our prime data since the onset of the pandemic and provide support to our outlook for property values. 14th October 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the sell-off in DM bonds will resume While the yields of long-dated government bonds in the euro-zone, UK and US have dropped back a bit in recent days, we think they will rise between now and the end of 2023. We expect increases in... 14th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug) The large decline in euro-zone industrial production in August was largely due to supply shortages affecting production, particularly in the German auto sector. While demand is still strong, prolonged... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update “Underlying inflation” still weak Core inflation in the euro-zone rose to 1.9% in September, its highest level in nearly 13 years, but other measures of underlying inflation are much lower. This supports our view that when the... 12th October 2021 · 4 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Assessing the outlook for US equity valuations We forecast that the valuation of the US stock market will deflate a bit further over the next couple of years, though we are not expecting a sharp decline. 8th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Energy costs soar, vehicle output slumps Soaring energy costs are yet another headwind to the euro-zone’s economic recovery. That said, while the balance of risks has arguably shifted to the upside, we still think price pressures are likely... 8th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Headwinds strengthening Supply shortages and rising energy prices are becoming stronger headwinds to the euro-zone recovery. The latest data from Germany showed sharp falls in industrial orders and production, with... 7th October 2021 · 11 mins read
