Europe Commercial Property Helsinki offices to continue to outperform euro-zone Following better-than-expected Q2 data, we have revised up our Helsinki office returns forecasts for this year. And given a robust rental outlook, returns are set to outpace the euro-zone over the... 6th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics German Industrial Production (June) The further decline in German industrial output in June, to 6.8% below its pre-pandemic level, underlines that the problems in the auto sector will hold back an otherwise strong economic recovery. It... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Longer-term prospects poor for Italian offices With demand slowly recovering and supply being pushed back, we no longer expect prime office rental falls in the Italian markets this year. However, the outlook is less encouraging, with a slowdown in... 4th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Strong recovery to continue in Q3 The surge in spending as coronavirus restrictions have been lifted will bring the euro-zone economy close to its pre-pandemic level in the coming months. After expanding by 2% q/q in Q2, we expect a... 4th August 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Final PMIs (July) and Retail Sales (June) The final PMIs show that the euro-zone’s recovery continued apace at the start of Q3. Price pressures are continuing to mount and point to an increase in inflation in the coming months, but we expect... 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Reopening effects to persist in Q3 The surge in German inflation, to 3.8% on the national CPI measure in July, may have got some pulses racing in Frankfurt, but core euro-zone inflation remains very low and we continue to think that... 30th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone GDP and Employment (Q2) After increasing more than expected in Q2, thanks to strong growth in the southern economies, euro-zone GDP should expand rapidly again in Q3 as core economies close in on their pandemic levels. China... 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Flash HICP (July) Euro-zone inflation resumed its upward trend in July and we expect it to rise further in the remainder of the year. But this is largely due to temporary factors, which should fade in 2022. 30th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Germany Flash Inflation (July) The increase in German inflation to nearly 4% on the CPI measure was partly due to last year’s VAT cut and partly due to rising energy and food inflation, all of which should prove short-lived... 29th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (July) Economic sentiment in the euro-zone continued to improve in July as restrictions were lifted further. The EC Survey also showed that persistent input shortages are causing price pressures to grow... 29th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property A primer on European residential property Less favourable demand fundamentals and less scope for yield compression mean that European residential returns are likely to be lower in the coming years than over the previous decade. An analysis of... 27th July 2021 · 17 mins read
Europe Economics Inflation won’t surge in the euro-zone like in the US We think that euro-zone headline inflation will rise further than most expect in the second half of this year. But rather than reaching the levels of around 5% seen in the US, it is likely to top out... 27th July 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics German Ifo Survey (July) The small decline in the Ifo Business Climate Index in July suggests that the rebound in Germany may be losing some momentum. But Germany will still post very rapid GDP growth in both Q2 and Q3 and... 26th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect E-Z “peripheral” spreads to remain low While we no longer expect peripheral spreads to narrow this year, we still think that they will remain close to their current levels, which are close to the lowest since the Global Financial Crisis. 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Negative rates and QE forever? The change in the ECB’s policy guidance, announced yesterday, strengthens our view that the Bank will leave its deposit rate unchanged at -0.5% until beyond 2025 and will continue with large-scale... 23rd July 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July) July’s euro-zone PMIs confirm that the economy is still rebounding rapidly and that price pressures are continuing to build. While the Delta variant poses a risk to our above-consensus GDP forecasts... 23rd July 2021 · 3 mins read
