Capital Daily Consumer confidence and the US stock market We do not think that the surge in the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence in June is a reason to be positive about the outlook for the US stock market. 30th June 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Central Bank Watch How will central banks respond to the inflation threat? The rise in inflation and the question of how central banks will respond has dominated headlines over recent weeks. In this Global Central Bank Watch, we set out a framework for thinking about how the... 30th June 2021 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU vaccine passport won’t spark surge in tourism The EU’s digital Covid certificate, which is being launched tomorrow, will have very little impact on European tourism this year. Non-essential travel is already possible, but most adults are not... 30th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (June) After dipping below 2% in June euro-zone inflation is likely to rise again in the coming months, led by higher inflation in Germany. But we think it will drop back early next year and remain low... 30th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Paris offices to maintain lead over Lyon Tighter supply conditions and the expected smaller hit from the shift to remote working mean that we think Paris office rents will continue to outperform Lyon over the next five years. 30th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (June) Economic sentiment in the euro-zone improved sharply in June as restrictions were lifted further. Although industrial confidence was flattered by low levels of stocks, presumably relating to supply... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Money & Credit (May) The signs that households have started to borrow again provide us with confidence that May’s surprise fall in retail sales was a result of a shift in spending from retailers to other areas as the... 29th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ economy bounces back, but ECB doves hold sway The uniformly strong surveys for June suggest that the euro-zone economy is recovering at a decent pace from the lockdowns earlier in the year. That might prompt some re-opening inflation – data next... 25th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The further slowdown in the money supply growth in May is due to big changes during the first lockdown dropping out of the annual comparison. Money supply data will be affected by the pandemic for a... 25th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Travel restrictions pour cold water on Spanish tourism Lingering restrictions on international travel to control the spread of the Delta variant mean that Spanish foreign tourist revenues this year will probably be only half what they were in 2019. That... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (June) The German football team only narrowly scraped through the group stage of the Euros yesterday, but the news about the economy continues to be much more emphatic. 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Reflationary recovery races on Inflation indicators in the flash PMIs for June reached new record highs and supplier delivery times lengthened still further. However, outside the US at least, there are few signs that goods... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update How likely is a hawkish surprise by the ECB? Last week’s surprise change in the Fed’s guidance about how soon it is likely to raise its key policy rate raises the question of whether the ECB will follow suit. In our view, although the euro-zone... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (June) The further strengthening of the euro-zone Composite PMI to a 15-year high in June underlines that the economy is rebounding quickly. Alongside this recovery, price pressures are continuing to build... 23rd June 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Inflation picture more nuanced than headlines suggest While rising commodity prices and supply shortages are boosting inflation everywhere for now, the outlook is mixed. The boost from energy prices will fade soon as the anniversary of last year’s slump... 21st June 2021 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Update How much of the rise in inflation is due to ‘base effects’? Much of the rise in inflation in major advanced economies from February to May has reflected the fact that prices fell in the same period a year ago. That said, depending on how you measure it, around... 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
